Football · New Zealand Central League · 29/08, 03:45
Prediction: Wellington Olympic vs Waterside Karori
Team pages: Wellington Olympic · Waterside Karori
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.96Total
Wellington Olympic2.98
Waterside Karori0.98
1X2
Wellington Olympic
Draw
Waterside Karori
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
2-0 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Wellington Olympic
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Waterside Karori
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Wellington Olympic
6–0
Waterside Karori
(6 last)
- Waterside Karori0-3Wellington Olympic
- Waterside Karori1-9Wellington Olympic
- Waterside Karori0-3Wellington Olympic
- Wellington Olympic5-0Waterside Karori
- Waterside Karori0-5Wellington Olympic
- Wellington Olympic4-1Waterside Karori
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Wellington Olympic 1567 · Waterside Karori 1480
| Wellington Olympic | Draw | Waterside Karori | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| Market | 86% | 9% | 5% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.96 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wellington Olympic (rating 1567 vs 1480).
- H2H favours Wellington Olympic: 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Wellington Olympic | Waterside Karori | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.1 / 0.9 | 1.1 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.2 | 0.7 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 6.1 | 1 / 2.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0 | 2.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Wellington Olympic 6–0–0 Waterside Karori
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 New Zealand Central League | Waterside Karori | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Wellington Olympic |
| 28/06/25 New Zealand Central League | Waterside Karori | 1-9 HT 0-2 | Wellington Olympic |
| 14/06/25 New Zealand Cup | Waterside Karori | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Wellington Olympic |
| 12/04/25 New Zealand Central League | Wellington Olympic | 5-0 HT 3-0 | Waterside Karori |
| 29/06/24 New Zealand Central League | Waterside Karori | 0-5 HT 0-1 | Wellington Olympic |
| 13/04/24 New Zealand Central League | Wellington Olympic | 4-1 HT 1-1 | Waterside Karori |
Standings · New Zealand Central League · Central League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Napier City Rovers | 16 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 44 | 12 | 41 |
| 2 | Wellington Olympic | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 51 | 16 | 39 |
| 3 | Miramar Rangers | 16 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 43 | 11 | 37 |
| 4 | Western Suburbs | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 32 | 13 | 35 |
| 5 | Upper Hutt City | 17 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 30 | 36 | 21 |
| 6 | Island Bay United | 17 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 36 | 19 |
| 7 | Waterside Karori | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 41 | 15 |
| 8 | Petone FC | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 30 | 13 |
| 9 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 17 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 24 | 11 |
| 10 | FC Western | 17 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 63 | 6 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Wellington Olympic | Waterside Karori |
|---|---|---|
| Petone FC | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Upper Hutt City | 4-1 W | 0-6 L |
| Island Bay United | 2-1 W | 4-0 W |
| FC Western | 9-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Napier City Rovers | 2-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Western Suburbs | 2-1 W | 0-3 L |
| Miramar Rangers | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 5 W 2 D 1 L | 3 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Wellington Olympic (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Wellington Olympic
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Petone FC New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 08/08 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 01/08 | Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League |
1-1 | 4-1 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 11/07 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
5-0 | 9-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 28/06 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 23/05 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | Petone FC New Zealand Central League |
3-0 | 5-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
Waterside Karori
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 08/08 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
1-2 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 01/08 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 19/07 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 11/07 | Petone FC New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 27/06 | Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League |
0-5 | 0-6 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 20/06 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | D |
| 06/06 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Wellington Olympic vs Waterside Karori?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Wellington Olympic win (82%). Probabilities: Wellington Olympic 82%, draw 11%, Waterside Karori 7%.
How many goals are expected in Wellington Olympic vs Waterside Karori?
The model expects 3.96 goals (Wellington Olympic 2.98 · Waterside Karori 0.98), with a 55% chance of under 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Wellington Olympic vs Waterside Karori?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.