Football · New Zealand Central League · 29/08, 06:30

Prediction: Wellington Phoenix Reserves vs Upper Hutt City

Team pages: Wellington Phoenix Reserves · Upper Hutt City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

Wellington Phoenix Reserves1.75

Upper Hutt City1.36

1X2

47% 23% 30%

Wellington Phoenix Reserves Draw Upper Hutt City

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Wellington Phoenix Reserves 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

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Upper Hutt City 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Wellington Phoenix Reserves 2–1 Upper Hutt City (3 last)

Upper Hutt City1-0Wellington Phoenix Reserves
Upper Hutt City0-6Wellington Phoenix Reserves
Wellington Phoenix Reserves4-0Upper Hutt City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wellington Phoenix Reserves 1432 · Upper Hutt City 1490

	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	Draw	Upper Hutt City
Our model	46%	25%	29%
Market	48%	22%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Upper Hutt City (rating 1432 vs 1490).
H2H favours Wellington Phoenix Reserves: 2-0-1.
High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	Upper Hutt City
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.4	2.3 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 6.3	3.1 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.85

X4.10

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Pinn 2.02 ★
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.16
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 13.2% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:56 +16’	1.85	4.10	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:50 +22’	2.02	4.16	2.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Wellington Phoenix Reserves 2–0–1 Upper Hutt City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 New Zealand Central League	Upper Hutt City	1-0 HT 0-0	Wellington Phoenix Reserves
07/06/25 New Zealand Central League	Upper Hutt City	0-6 HT 0-3	Wellington Phoenix Reserves
29/03/25 New Zealand Central League	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	4-0 HT 0-0	Upper Hutt City

Standings · New Zealand Central League · Central League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Napier City Rovers	16	13	2	1	44	12	41
2	Wellington Olympic	17	12	3	2	51	16	39
3	Miramar Rangers	16	11	4	1	43	11	37
4	Western Suburbs	17	10	5	2	32	13	35
5	Upper Hutt City	17	7	0	10	30	36	21
6	Island Bay United	17	6	1	10	26	36	19
7	Waterside Karori	17	4	3	10	15	41	15
8	Petone FC	17	3	4	10	15	30	13
9	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	17	2	5	10	16	24	11
10	FC Western	17	1	3	13	10	63	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	Upper Hutt City
Island Bay United	1-2 L	2-4 L
Wellington Olympic	0-2 L	1-4 L
Western Suburbs	2-2 D	1-2 L
Napier City Rovers	1-2 L	1-5 L
Miramar Rangers	0-1 L	2-3 L
FC Western	1-1 D	3-0 W
Petone FC	1-1 D	2-0 W
Waterside Karori	0-0 D	6-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 4 L	3 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Wellington Phoenix Reserves (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wellington Phoenix Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Island Bay United New Zealand Central League	1-0	1-2	5	2	L
08/08	Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League	0-2	0-2	4	2	L
01/08	Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League	1-0	2-2	5	0	D
18/07	Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
11/07	Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
04/07	FC Western New Zealand Central League	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
27/06	Petone FC New Zealand Central League	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
20/06	Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
07/06	FC Western New Zealand Central League	0-2	1-2	10	0	L
23/05	Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League	0-0	0-1	11	4	L

Upper Hutt City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	FC Western New Zealand Central League	1-0	3-0	15	1	W
08/08	Island Bay United New Zealand Central League	0-2	2-4	10	4	L
01/08	Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League	1-1	1-4	6	2	L
18/07	Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League	0-1	1-2	3	7	L
12/07	Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League	0-2	1-5	8	0	L
27/06	Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League	5-0	6-0	7	1	W
20/06	Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League	1-1	2-3	5	1	L
06/06	Petone FC New Zealand Central League	0-0	2-0	1	3	W
23/05	Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
17/05	FC Western New Zealand Central League	2-1	4-1	9	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wellington Phoenix Reserves vs Upper Hutt City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Wellington Phoenix Reserves win (47%). Probabilities: Wellington Phoenix Reserves 47%, draw 23%, Upper Hutt City 30%.

How many goals are expected in Wellington Phoenix Reserves vs Upper Hutt City?

The model expects 3.11 goals (Wellington Phoenix Reserves 1.75 · Upper Hutt City 1.36), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Wellington Phoenix Reserves vs Upper Hutt City?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.