Football · New Zealand Central League · 29/08, 04:30
Prediction: Petone FC vs Island Bay United
Team pages: Petone FC · Island Bay United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.87Total
Petone FC1.62
Island Bay United1.25
1X2
Petone FC
Draw
Island Bay United
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Petone FC
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Island Bay United
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Petone FC
3–2
Island Bay United
(5 last)
- Island Bay United2-0Petone FC
- Petone FC5-0Island Bay United
- Island Bay United1-4Petone FC
- Island Bay United0-3Petone FC
- Petone FC2-3Island Bay United
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Petone FC 1431 · Island Bay United 1450
| Petone FC | Draw | Island Bay United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 27% | 29% |
| Market | 48% | 20% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.87 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Petone FC: 3-0-2.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Petone FC | Island Bay United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 2 | 1.1 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.4 | 2.7 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0 | 2.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Petone FC 3–0–2 Island Bay United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 New Zealand Central League | Island Bay United | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Petone FC |
| 09/08/25 New Zealand Central League | Petone FC | 5-0 HT 1-0 | Island Bay United |
| 10/05/25 New Zealand Central League | Island Bay United | 1-4 HT 1-3 | Petone FC |
| 29/06/24 New Zealand Central League | Island Bay United | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Petone FC |
| 13/04/24 New Zealand Central League | Petone FC | 2-3 HT 0-0 | Island Bay United |
Standings · New Zealand Central League · Central League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Napier City Rovers | 16 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 44 | 12 | 41 |
| 2 | Wellington Olympic | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 51 | 16 | 39 |
| 3 | Miramar Rangers | 16 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 43 | 11 | 37 |
| 4 | Western Suburbs | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 32 | 13 | 35 |
| 5 | Upper Hutt City | 17 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 30 | 36 | 21 |
| 6 | Island Bay United | 17 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 36 | 19 |
| 7 | Waterside Karori | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 41 | 15 |
| 8 | Petone FC | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 30 | 13 |
| 9 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 17 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 24 | 11 |
| 10 | FC Western | 17 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 63 | 6 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Petone FC | Island Bay United |
|---|---|---|
| Wellington Olympic | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Western Suburbs | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Napier City Rovers | 0-4 L | 0-1 L |
| Miramar Rangers | 1-1 D | 2-4 L |
| Waterside Karori | 0-1 L | 0-4 L |
| Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| FC Western | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Upper Hutt City | 0-2 L | 4-2 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 4 L | 2 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Petone FC (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Petone FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 08/08 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 18/07 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 11/07 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 11 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 21/06 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 06/06 | Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League |
0-3 | 1-5 | 6 | 1 | L |
Island Bay United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League |
2-0 | 4-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 01/08 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 18 | 0 | D |
| 18/07 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 11/07 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League |
2-1 | 2-4 | 12 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 24/05 | Petone FC New Zealand Central League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Petone FC vs Island Bay United?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Petone FC win (46%). Probabilities: Petone FC 46%, draw 23%, Island Bay United 30%.
How many goals are expected in Petone FC vs Island Bay United?
The model expects 2.87 goals (Petone FC 1.62 · Island Bay United 1.25), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Petone FC vs Island Bay United?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.