Football · New Zealand Central League · 01/08, 05:00

Prediction: Wellington Phoenix Reserves vs Western Suburbs

Team pages: Wellington Phoenix Reserves · Western Suburbs

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

Wellington Phoenix Reserves1.07

Western Suburbs1.85

1X2

22% 23% 55%

Wellington Phoenix Reserves Draw Western Suburbs

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Wellington Phoenix Reserves 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Western Suburbs 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWDLLDWW

Head-to-head

Wellington Phoenix Reserves 2–1–3 Western Suburbs (6 last)

Western Suburbs1-0Wellington Phoenix Reserves
Western Suburbs2-7Wellington Phoenix Reserves
Wellington Phoenix Reserves0-2Western Suburbs
Western Suburbs2-2Wellington Phoenix Reserves
Wellington Phoenix Reserves2-0Western Suburbs
Western Suburbs2-1Wellington Phoenix Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wellington Phoenix Reserves 1453 · Western Suburbs 1536

	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	Draw	Western Suburbs
Our model	21%	25%	54%
Market	22%	21%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Western Suburbs (rating 1453 vs 1536).
H2H favours Western Suburbs: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	Western Suburbs
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.4	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.9 / 6.4	2.9 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.00

X4.20

21.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.80

2 (-1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40
X	4.20 → 4.00▼	Bet365 4.00
2	1.60 → 1.75▲	Bet365 1.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:03 +11’	4.00	4.20	1.60
18:43 +1’	3.40▼	4.00▼	1.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Wellington Phoenix Reserves 2–1–3 Western Suburbs

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 New Zealand Central League	Western Suburbs	1-0 HT 1-0	Wellington Phoenix Reserves
07/12/25 New Zealand Football Championship	Western Suburbs	2-7 HT 1-2	Wellington Phoenix Reserves
09/08/25 New Zealand Central League	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	0-2 HT 0-1	Western Suburbs
10/05/25 New Zealand Central League	Western Suburbs	2-2 HT 1-0	Wellington Phoenix Reserves
03/11/24 New Zealand Football Championship	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	2-0 HT 1-0	Western Suburbs
18/05/24 New Zealand Central League	Western Suburbs	2-1 HT 1-1	Wellington Phoenix Reserves

Standings · New Zealand Central League · Central League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Napier City Rovers	14	11	2	1	37	11	35
2	Miramar Rangers	14	10	3	1	31	11	33
3	Wellington Olympic	14	10	2	2	44	14	32
4	Western Suburbs	14	8	4	2	25	11	28
5	Upper Hutt City	14	6	0	8	24	28	18
6	Waterside Karori	14	4	2	8	14	35	14
7	Petone FC	14	3	3	8	14	23	12
8	Island Bay United	14	4	0	10	20	33	12
9	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	14	2	4	8	13	18	10
10	FC Western	14	1	2	11	10	48	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	Western Suburbs
Napier City Rovers	1-2 L	3-3 D
Miramar Rangers	0-1 L	0-2 L
FC Western	1-1 D	1-1 D
Petone FC	1-1 D	1-0 W
Waterside Karori	0-0 D	2-2 D
Island Bay United	2-2 D	2-0 W
Upper Hutt City	0-1 L	2-1 W
Wellington Olympic	1-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 4 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Western Suburbs (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Wellington Phoenix Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
11/07	Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
04/07	FC Western New Zealand Central League	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
27/06	Petone FC New Zealand Central League	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
20/06	Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
07/06	FC Western New Zealand Central League	0-2	1-2	10	0	L
03/06	Island Bay United New Zealand Cup	2-2	2-2	6	2	D
23/05	Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League	0-0	0-1	11	4	L
16/05	Island Bay United New Zealand Central League	2-1	3-1	8	3	W
09/05	Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League	1-2	1-3	1	1	L

Western Suburbs

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League	1-0	2-1	3	7	W
11/07	Island Bay United New Zealand Central League	1-0	2-0	8	4	W
28/06	FC Western New Zealand Central League	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
20/06	Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League	0-0	1-2	7	4	L
13/06	Miramar Rangers New Zealand Cup	0-0	0-2	4	0	L
06/06	Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League	1-2	3-3	2	4	D
23/05	Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
16/05	Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League	1-2	2-2	8	1	D
09/05	Petone FC New Zealand Central League	1-0	1-0	8	6	W
02/05	Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League	1-0	1-0	4	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wellington Phoenix Reserves vs Western Suburbs?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Western Suburbs win (55%). Probabilities: Wellington Phoenix Reserves 22%, draw 23%, Western Suburbs 55%.

How many goals are expected in Wellington Phoenix Reserves vs Western Suburbs?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Wellington Phoenix Reserves 1.07 · Western Suburbs 1.85), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Wellington Phoenix Reserves vs Western Suburbs?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.