Football · New Zealand Central League · 01/08, 04:30
Prediction: Miramar Rangers vs Waterside Karori
Team pages: Miramar Rangers · Waterside Karori
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.32Total
Miramar Rangers3.16
Waterside Karori1.16
1X2
Miramar Rangers
Draw
Waterside Karori
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
3-1
Recent form · 10 last
Miramar Rangers
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Waterside Karori
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Miramar Rangers
5–1–0
Waterside Karori
(6 last)
- Waterside Karori0-6Miramar Rangers
- Miramar Rangers8-1Waterside Karori
- Waterside Karori2-3Miramar Rangers
- Waterside Karori1-1Miramar Rangers
- Miramar Rangers4-3Waterside Karori
- Waterside Karori1-2Miramar Rangers
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Miramar Rangers 1596 · Waterside Karori 1472
| Miramar Rangers | Draw | Waterside Karori | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 14% | 10% |
| Market | 80% | 12% | 8% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.32 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Miramar Rangers (rating 1596 vs 1472).
- H2H favours Miramar Rangers: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Miramar Rangers | Waterside Karori | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.1 | 1 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 33/22/44% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4 / 7.7 | 1 / 2.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0 | 2.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Miramar Rangers 5–1–0 Waterside Karori
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 New Zealand Central League | Waterside Karori | 0-6 HT 0-2 | Miramar Rangers |
| 23/08/25 New Zealand Central League | Miramar Rangers | 8-1 HT 3-0 | Waterside Karori |
| 17/05/25 New Zealand Central League | Waterside Karori | 2-3 HT 2-2 | Miramar Rangers |
| 24/08/24 New Zealand Central League | Waterside Karori | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Miramar Rangers |
| 18/05/24 New Zealand Central League | Miramar Rangers | 4-3 HT 1-1 | Waterside Karori |
| 12/08/23 New Zealand Central League | Waterside Karori | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Miramar Rangers |
Standings · New Zealand Central League · Central League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Napier City Rovers | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 37 | 11 | 35 |
| 2 | Miramar Rangers | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 11 | 33 |
| 3 | Wellington Olympic | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 44 | 14 | 32 |
| 4 | Western Suburbs | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 25 | 11 | 28 |
| 5 | Upper Hutt City | 14 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 24 | 28 | 18 |
| 6 | Waterside Karori | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 35 | 14 |
| 7 | Petone FC | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 23 | 12 |
| 8 | Island Bay United | 14 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 20 | 33 | 12 |
| 9 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 18 | 10 |
| 10 | FC Western | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 48 | 5 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Miramar Rangers | Waterside Karori |
|---|---|---|
| Petone FC | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Island Bay United | 3-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Upper Hutt City | 3-2 W | 0-6 L |
| Western Suburbs | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Wellington Olympic | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 0 L | 2 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Miramar Rangers (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Miramar Rangers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Cup |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 18/07 | Petone FC New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 11/07 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 15 | 3 | W |
| 04/07 | Island Bay United New Zealand Cup |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
1-2 | 4-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 20/06 | Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 13/06 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 06/06 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 30/05 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
Waterside Karori
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 11/07 | Petone FC New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 27/06 | Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League |
0-5 | 0-6 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 20/06 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | D |
| 06/06 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 01/06 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Cup |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 23/05 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 10/05 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
0-3 | 0-5 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League |
0-2 | 0-6 | 0 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Miramar Rangers vs Waterside Karori?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Miramar Rangers win (78%). Probabilities: Miramar Rangers 78%, draw 13%, Waterside Karori 9%.
How many goals are expected in Miramar Rangers vs Waterside Karori?
The model expects 4.32 goals (Miramar Rangers 3.16 · Waterside Karori 1.16), with a 50% chance of over 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Miramar Rangers vs Waterside Karori?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.