Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 19/07, 12:00

Prediction: Riga FC II vs SK Super Nova II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

Riga FC II1.81

SK Super Nova II1.48

1X2

45% 24% 31%

Riga FC II Draw SK Super Nova II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Riga FC II 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WDWLLLLWWW

SK Super Nova II 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDLLWWDLWD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Riga FC II 1511 · SK Super Nova II 1508

	Riga FC II	Draw	SK Super Nova II
Our model	44%	25%	31%
Market	45%	24%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Riga FC II	SK Super Nova II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.7	1.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.9	2.3 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.4	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.75

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.3

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:10 +11’	2.00	3.75	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metta/LU	12	10	1	1	42	11	31
2	Valmiera FC	12	9	2	1	32	12	29
3	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	12	8	4	0	25	10	28
4	Saldus SS/Leevon	12	7	3	2	20	15	24
5	JDFS Alberts	12	6	2	4	25	20	20
6	Marupes SC	12	6	1	5	22	15	19
7	SK Super Nova II	12	5	4	3	19	17	19
8	Riga FC II	12	5	1	6	19	22	16
9	Skanstes SK	12	4	1	7	20	24	13
10	JFK Ventspils	12	2	4	6	15	20	10
11	RFS II	12	2	3	7	15	26	9
12	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	12	2	2	8	16	31	8
13	Rezeknes FA	12	1	2	9	10	36	5
14	FK Smiltene/BJSS	12	0	4	8	12	33	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Riga FC II	SK Super Nova II
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	2-0 W	3-1 W
RFS II	3-1 W	1-1 D
FK Smiltene/BJSS	2-0 W	2-0 W
Rezeknes FA	1-2 L	1-0 W
Marupes SC	0-4 L	0-1 L
Leevon PPK	2-3 L	2-3 L
Skanstes SK	0-2 L	1-1 D
JFK Ventspils	4-2 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 4 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: SK Super Nova II (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Riga FC II

WDWLLLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/07	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
27/06	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
14/06	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
23/05	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
17/05	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-4	3	4	L
10/05	Leevon PPK Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	2-3	3	8	L
04/05	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-2	12	2	L
26/04	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	4-2	6	4	W
19/04	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	2-2	5	5	D
10/04	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	2-1	0	6	W

SK Super Nova II

WDLLWWDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/07	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
27/06	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	3-1	1	3	W
13/06	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-5	3-7	5	3	L
26/05	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
13/05	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-0	7	5	W
09/05	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
02/05	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
26/04	Leevon PPK Latvia 1. Liga	2-2	2-3	2	7	L
19/04	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
11/04	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Riga FC II vs SK Super Nova II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Riga FC II win (45%). Probabilities: Riga FC II 45%, draw 24%, SK Super Nova II 31%.

How many goals are expected in Riga FC II vs SK Super Nova II?

The model expects 3.29 goals (Riga FC II 1.81 · SK Super Nova II 1.48), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Riga FC II vs SK Super Nova II?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.