Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 25/07, 15:00

Prediction: JDFS Alberts vs SK Super Nova II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.41Total

JDFS Alberts2.22

SK Super Nova II1.18

1X2

60% 21% 19%

JDFS Alberts Draw SK Super Nova II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

JDFS Alberts 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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SK Super Nova II 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

JDFS Alberts 0–1 SK Super Nova II (1 last)

SK Super Nova II2-1JDFS Alberts

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JDFS Alberts 1554 · SK Super Nova II 1496

	JDFS Alberts	Draw	SK Super Nova II
Our model	60%	22%	18%
Market	60%	21%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.41 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JDFS Alberts (rating 1554 vs 1496).
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JDFS Alberts	SK Super Nova II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.5	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.3	2.3 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.33

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:13 +2’	1.48	4.33	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JDFS Alberts 0–0–1 SK Super Nova II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/03/26 Latvia 1. Liga	SK Super Nova II	2-1 HT 1-0	JDFS Alberts

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metta/LU	13	11	1	1	46	11	34
2	Valmiera FC	13	10	2	1	35	12	32
3	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	13	8	4	1	26	12	28
4	Saldus SS/Leevon	13	8	3	2	22	16	27
5	JDFS Alberts	13	7	2	4	28	21	23
6	Marupes SC	13	6	1	6	22	19	19
7	Riga FC II	13	6	1	6	21	23	19
8	SK Super Nova II	13	5	4	4	20	19	19
9	Skanstes SK	13	4	1	8	20	27	13
10	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	13	3	2	8	18	31	11
11	JFK Ventspils	13	2	4	7	16	23	10
12	RFS II	13	2	3	8	15	28	9
13	FK Smiltene/BJSS	13	1	4	8	13	33	7
14	Rezeknes FA	13	1	2	10	10	37	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JDFS Alberts	SK Super Nova II
Rezeknes FA	4-2 W	1-0 W
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	6-1 W	3-1 W
Skanstes SK	4-1 W	1-1 D
Metta/LU	1-4 L	3-7 L
Valmiera FC	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: JDFS Alberts (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

JDFS Alberts

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	3-1	12	2	W
04/07	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	0-4	4	2	L
27/06	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	4-2	7	4	W
20/06	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia Cup	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
13/06	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
31/05	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	6-1	–	–	W
27/05	Iecava Latvia Cup	3-0	5-0	–	–	W
24/05	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	4-1	3	2	W
16/05	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-3	1-4	3	3	L
09/05	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-1	8	6	D

SK Super Nova II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	1-2	5	5	L
05/07	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
27/06	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	3-1	1	3	W
13/06	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-5	3-7	5	3	L
26/05	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
13/05	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-0	7	5	W
09/05	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
02/05	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
26/04	Leevon PPK Latvia 1. Liga	2-2	2-3	2	7	L
19/04	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-1	2	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JDFS Alberts vs SK Super Nova II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JDFS Alberts win (60%). Probabilities: JDFS Alberts 60%, draw 21%, SK Super Nova II 19%.

How many goals are expected in JDFS Alberts vs SK Super Nova II?

The model expects 3.41 goals (JDFS Alberts 2.22 · SK Super Nova II 1.18), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in JDFS Alberts vs SK Super Nova II?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.