Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 27/07, 17:00

Prediction: Valmiera FC vs Riga FC II

Team pages: Valmiera FC · Riga FC II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.63Total

Valmiera FC2.53

Riga FC II1.1

1X2

68% 18% 14%

Valmiera FC Draw Riga FC II

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Valmiera FC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

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Riga FC II 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Valmiera FC 1–0 Riga FC II (1 last)

Riga FC II1-3Valmiera FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Valmiera FC 1587 · Riga FC II 1503

	Valmiera FC	Draw	Riga FC II
Our model	68%	19%	14%
Market	68%	18%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.63 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valmiera FC (rating 1587 vs 1503).
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Valmiera FC	Riga FC II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 0.9	1.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.2	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.6	3.1 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.30

X5.00

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)2.00

2 (+1.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 16:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.30▼	Bet365 1.30
X	4.75 → 5.00▲	Pinn 5.41 ★
2	6.00 → 6.25▲	Pinn 6.62

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 12.9% Pinnacle margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
10:36 +39’	1.36	4.75	6.00
05:56 +5’	1.33▼	4.75	6.25▲
06:58 +2’	1.36▲	4.75	6.00▼
15:59 +1’	1.30▼	5.00▲	6.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:00	1.26	5.24	6.61
07:00	1.30▲	5.09▼	6.20▼
10:00 +1’	1.29▼	5.18▲	6.27▲
14:00	1.28▼	5.26▲	6.40▲
16:00	1.29▲	5.41▲	6.62▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Valmiera FC 1–0–0 Riga FC II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Latvia 1. Liga	Riga FC II	1-3 HT 1-1	Valmiera FC

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metta/LU	13	11	1	1	46	11	34
2	Valmiera FC	13	10	2	1	35	12	32
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	14	9	3	2	24	17	30
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	14	8	5	1	27	13	29
5	JDFS Alberts	14	7	3	4	29	22	24
6	Marupes SC	14	7	1	6	24	20	22
7	SK Super Nova II	14	5	5	4	21	20	20
8	Riga FC II	13	6	1	6	21	23	19
9	Skanstes SK	14	4	1	9	21	29	13
10	RFS II	14	3	3	8	20	31	12
11	JFK Ventspils	14	2	5	7	17	24	11
12	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	13	3	2	8	18	31	11
13	FK Smiltene/BJSS	14	1	4	9	16	38	7
14	Rezeknes FA	14	1	2	11	11	39	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Valmiera FC	Riga FC II
Skanstes SK	3-0 W	0-2 L
JFK Ventspils	2-0 W	4-2 W
FK Smiltene/BJSS	4-1 W	2-0 W
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	4-1 W	2-0 W
SK Super Nova II	0-0 D	2-1 W
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	1-3 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Valmiera FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Valmiera FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
12/07	Ogre United Latvia Cup	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
05/07	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	4-1	5	7	W
28/06	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-0	10	5	W
22/06	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia Cup	3-1	4-1	7	8	W
14/06	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	4-1	4	1	W
30/05	Skanstes SK Latvia Cup	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
26/05	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
16/05	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-3	7	7	L
09/05	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-1	4	6	D

Riga FC II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	2-1	5	5	W
04/07	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
27/06	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
14/06	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
23/05	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
17/05	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-4	3	4	L
10/05	Leevon PPK Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	2-3	3	8	L
04/05	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-2	12	2	L
26/04	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	4-2	6	4	W
19/04	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	2-2	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Valmiera FC vs Riga FC II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Valmiera FC win (68%). Probabilities: Valmiera FC 68%, draw 18%, Riga FC II 14%.

How many goals are expected in Valmiera FC vs Riga FC II?

The model expects 3.63 goals (Valmiera FC 2.53 · Riga FC II 1.1), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Valmiera FC vs Riga FC II?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.