Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 25/07, 16:00

Prediction: FK Beitar Riga/Mariners vs JFK Ventspils

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

FK Beitar Riga/Mariners2.21

JFK Ventspils0.83

1X2

69% 18% 13%

FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Draw JFK Ventspils

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWWWDL

JFK Ventspils 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWWLLDWL

Head-to-head

FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 2–1 JFK Ventspils (3 last)

JFK Ventspils0-1FK Beitar Riga/Mariners
JFK Ventspils1-2FK Beitar Riga/Mariners
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners1-2JFK Ventspils

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 1609 · JFK Ventspils 1462

	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	Draw	JFK Ventspils
Our model	68%	20%	12%
Market	70%	16%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Beitar Riga/Mariners (rating 1609 vs 1462).
H2H favours FK Beitar Riga/Mariners: 2-0-1.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	JFK Ventspils
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 0.8	1.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.9	2.6 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.1	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.28

X5.50

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.95

2 (+1.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
12:08 +8’	1.28	5.50	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 2–0–1 JFK Ventspils

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Latvia 1. Liga	JFK Ventspils	0-1 HT 0-1	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners
13/09/25 Latvia 1. Liga	JFK Ventspils	1-2 HT 1-1	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners
03/05/25 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	1-2 HT 0-1	JFK Ventspils

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metta/LU	13	11	1	1	46	11	34
2	Valmiera FC	13	10	2	1	35	12	32
3	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	13	8	4	1	26	12	28
4	Saldus SS/Leevon	13	8	3	2	22	16	27
5	JDFS Alberts	13	7	2	4	28	21	23
6	Marupes SC	13	6	1	6	22	19	19
7	Riga FC II	13	6	1	6	21	23	19
8	SK Super Nova II	13	5	4	4	20	19	19
9	Skanstes SK	13	4	1	8	20	27	13
10	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	13	3	2	8	18	31	11
11	JFK Ventspils	13	2	4	7	16	23	10
12	RFS II	13	2	3	8	15	28	9
13	FK Smiltene/BJSS	13	1	4	8	13	33	7
14	Rezeknes FA	13	1	2	10	10	37	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	JFK Ventspils
Saldus SS/Leevon	1-2 L	1-3 L
JDFS Alberts	4-0 W	1-3 L
Marupes SC	2-0 W	2-1 W
Skanstes SK	2-0 W	3-0 W
Metta/LU	2-2 D	0-1 L
Valmiera FC	3-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FK Beitar Riga/Mariners (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Beitar Riga/Mariners

WWDWWWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-2	6	8	L
11/07	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Cup	2-1	3-3	3	4	D
04/07	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	4-0	9	2	W
27/06	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
20/06	JDFS Alberts Latvia Cup	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
14/06	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	2-0	1	7	W
30/05	Rfk/Rfs Latvia Cup	2-0	11-0	–	–	W
23/05	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	2-2	–	–	D
16/05	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	3-1	3	7	W
09/05	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-0	9	8	W

JFK Ventspils

DLLWWLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-3	4	2	L
11/07	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	3-0	1	4	W
04/07	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
28/06	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
20/06	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia Cup	1-2	1-3	6	7	L
14/06	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
01/06	Upesciema Warriors Latvia Cup	1-0	3-0	11	4	W
23/05	Leevon PPK Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-2	9	7	L
09/05	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-1	8	5	L
02/05	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-0	11	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Beitar Riga/Mariners vs JFK Ventspils?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Beitar Riga/Mariners win (69%). Probabilities: FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 69%, draw 18%, JFK Ventspils 13%.

How many goals are expected in FK Beitar Riga/Mariners vs JFK Ventspils?

The model expects 3.05 goals (FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 2.21 · JFK Ventspils 0.83), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Beitar Riga/Mariners vs JFK Ventspils?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.