Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 25/07, 13:00

Prediction: FK Smiltene/BJSS vs RFS II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

FK Smiltene/BJSS1.61

RFS II1.6

1X2

38% 25% 37%

FK Smiltene/BJSS Draw RFS II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Smiltene/BJSS 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLDWLLLLW

RFS II 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLLWWLDL

Head-to-head

FK Smiltene/BJSS 0–2–4 RFS II (6 last)

RFS II3-3FK Smiltene/BJSS
FK Smiltene/BJSS1-1RFS II
RFS II2-0FK Smiltene/BJSS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Smiltene/BJSS 1439 · RFS II 1456

	FK Smiltene/BJSS	Draw	RFS II
Our model	37%	25%	37%
Market	38%	24%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours RFS II: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Smiltene/BJSS	RFS II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2	1.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.9	2.3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.3	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.75

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:07 +6’	2.35	3.75	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Smiltene/BJSS 0–2–4 RFS II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Latvia 1. Liga	RFS II	3-3 HT 2-0	FK Smiltene/BJSS
08/11/25 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Smiltene/BJSS	1-1 HT 0-0	RFS II
20/07/25 Latvia 1. Liga	RFS II	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Smiltene/BJSS
17/08/24 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Smiltene/BJSS	0-3 HT 0-2	RFS II
21/04/24 Latvia 1. Liga	RFS II	7-0 HT 3-0	FK Smiltene/BJSS
12/11/23 Latvia 1. Liga	RFS II	5-4 HT 3-4	FK Smiltene/BJSS

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metta/LU	13	11	1	1	46	11	34
2	Valmiera FC	13	10	2	1	35	12	32
3	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	13	8	4	1	26	12	28
4	Saldus SS/Leevon	13	8	3	2	22	16	27
5	JDFS Alberts	13	7	2	4	28	21	23
6	Marupes SC	13	6	1	6	22	19	19
7	Riga FC II	13	6	1	6	21	23	19
8	SK Super Nova II	13	5	4	4	20	19	19
9	Skanstes SK	13	4	1	8	20	27	13
10	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	13	3	2	8	18	31	11
11	JFK Ventspils	13	2	4	7	16	23	10
12	RFS II	13	2	3	8	15	28	9
13	FK Smiltene/BJSS	13	1	4	8	13	33	7
14	Rezeknes FA	13	1	2	10	10	37	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Smiltene/BJSS	RFS II
Rezeknes FA	1-0 W	3-0 W
Marupes SC	1-2 L	4-1 W
Skanstes SK	2-4 L	0-4 L
Riga FC II	0-2 L	1-3 L
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	1-1 D	0-2 L
SK Super Nova II	0-2 L	1-1 D
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	0-1 L	1-2 L
JDFS Alberts	2-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 6 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Smiltene/BJSS

LLLDWLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-0	5	10	W
04/07	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-2	2	5	L
28/06	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	2-4	6	1	L
22/06	Valmiera FC Latvia Cup	1-3	1-4	2	8	L
14/06	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
30/05	Futbola Parks Academy Latvia Cup	0-1	5-1	–	–	W
24/05	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
13/05	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
09/05	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-1	2	8	L
03/05	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	1-3	2-3	5	8	L

RFS II

LLDLLWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/07	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-2	7	3	L
05/07	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
27/06	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
14/06	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-0	8	5	W
23/05	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	4-1	3	4	W
16/05	Leevon PPK Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-2	5	7	L
10/05	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-4	7	3	L
02/05	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-0	9	6	D
25/04	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-2	2	6	L
19/04	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-2	2	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Smiltene/BJSS vs RFS II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Smiltene/BJSS win (38%). Probabilities: FK Smiltene/BJSS 38%, draw 25%, RFS II 37%.

How many goals are expected in FK Smiltene/BJSS vs RFS II?

The model expects 3.2 goals (FK Smiltene/BJSS 1.61 · RFS II 1.6), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Smiltene/BJSS vs RFS II?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.