Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 12/09, 15:00

Prediction: Marupes SC vs FK Tukums 2000/TSS II

Team pages: Marupes SC · FK Tukums 2000/TSS II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.52Total

Marupes SC2.08

FK Tukums 2000/TSS II1.44

1X2

51% 23% 26%

Marupes SC Draw FK Tukums 2000/TSS II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Marupes SC 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Marupes SC 5–0 FK Tukums 2000/TSS II (5 last)

FK Tukums 2000/TSS II1-2Marupes SC
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II1-2Marupes SC
Marupes SC1-0FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
Marupes SC2-1FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II0-1Marupes SC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marupes SC (rating 1445 vs 1404).
H2H favours Marupes SC: 5-0-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Marupes SC	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.2	1 / 3.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.1	0.3 / 2.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/30/70%	0/20/80%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 5.1	2.9 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	2.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.87

Under 3.51.84

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:30

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.63 → 1.63	Pinn 1.63
X	3.97 → 3.97	Pinn 3.97
2	3.84 → 3.84	Pinn 3.84

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
04:12 +137’	1.63	3.97	3.84

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Marupes SC 5–0–0 FK Tukums 2000/TSS II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	1-2 HT 0-2	Marupes SC
27/07/25 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	1-2 HT 1-0	Marupes SC
29/03/25 Latvia 1. Liga	Marupes SC	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
31/08/24 Latvia 1. Liga	Marupes SC	2-1 HT 2-0	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
05/05/24 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	0-1 HT 0-0	Marupes SC

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Valmiera FC	19	15	3	1	56	18	48
2	Metta/LU	19	15	3	1	79	16	48
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	19	14	3	2	36	21	45
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	19	13	5	1	45	17	44
5	JDFS Alberts	19	11	4	4	40	26	37
6	Marupes SC	19	8	1	10	29	32	25
7	SK Super Nova II	20	6	7	7	28	30	25
8	Riga FC II	19	7	3	9	28	36	24
9	Skanstes SK	19	7	2	10	39	38	23
10	RFS II	19	4	3	12	28	52	15
11	JFK Ventspils	18	2	6	10	20	33	12
12	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	18	3	3	12	23	54	12
13	FK Smiltene/BJSS	19	2	4	13	23	56	10
14	Rezeknes FA	20	1	3	16	16	61	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Marupes SC	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
JDFS Alberts	0-2 L	1-1 D
Valmiera FC	1-4 L	1-4 L
SK Super Nova II	2-1 W	1-3 L
Saldus SS/Leevon	0-1 L	0-3 L
Skanstes SK	2-4 L	2-6 L
Metta/LU	0-4 L	0-9 L
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	0-2 L	2-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 6 L	0 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Marupes SC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Marupes SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	0-2	5	4	L
22/08	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	1-4	7	4	L
15/08	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
08/08	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
01/08	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	2-4	5	2	L
25/07	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
18/07	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-4	2	4	L
04/07	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	2-1	7	5	W
27/06	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
14/06	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-2	–	–	L

FK Tukums 2000/TSS II

LLLLWLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	0-3	5	3	L
30/08	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	2-5	2-6	4	2	L
09/08	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	2-4	–	–	L
03/08	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
27/07	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-6	0-9	0	0	L
20/07	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-0	9	3	W
04/07	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
27/06	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	1-3	8	3	L
14/06	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-4	9	1	L
31/05	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	1-6	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Marupes SC vs FK Tukums 2000/TSS II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Marupes SC win (51%). Probabilities: Marupes SC 51%, draw 23%, FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 26%.

How many goals are expected in Marupes SC vs FK Tukums 2000/TSS II?

The model expects 3.52 goals (Marupes SC 2.08 · FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 1.44), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Marupes SC vs FK Tukums 2000/TSS II?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.