Prediction: JDFS Alberts vs FK Beitar Riga/Mariners
Expected goals: 3.38 (JDFS Alberts 1.7 · FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 1.68). The model gives 38% home, 24% draw, 37% away. Under 3.25 goals (51%) and both teams to score (59%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Over its last 10 matches, JDFS Alberts sits at 6-2-2 (W-D-L), while FK Beitar Riga/Mariners arrives on a 7-3-0 run. In the last 3 head-to-head meetings the record reads 1 wins for JDFS Alberts and 2 for FK Beitar Riga/Mariners.
| JDFS Alberts | Draw | FK Beitar Riga/Mariners | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 25% | 37% |
| Market | 38% | 24% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Beitar Riga/Mariners (rating 1554 vs 1605).
- H2H favours FK Beitar Riga/Mariners: 2-0-1.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| JDFS Alberts | FK Beitar Riga/Mariners | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 1.3 | 2.8 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.4 | 2.6 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.1 | 5.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · JDFS Alberts 1–0–2 FK Beitar Riga/Mariners
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/26 Latvia Cup | FK Beitar Riga/Mariners | 1-0 HT 0-0 | JDFS Alberts |
| 08/11/25 Latvia 1. Liga | JDFS Alberts | 2-0 HT 0-0 | FK Beitar Riga/Mariners |
| 18/07/25 Latvia 1. Liga | FK Beitar Riga/Mariners | 4-2 HT 1-0 | JDFS Alberts |
Standings · Latvia 1. Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metta/LU | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 39 | 10 | 28 |
| 2 | Valmiera FC | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 11 | 26 |
| 3 | FK Beitar Riga/Mariners | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 21 | 10 | 25 |
| 4 | Saldus SS/Leevon | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 11 | 24 |
| 5 | JDFS Alberts | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 16 | 20 |
| 6 | SK Super Nova II | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 16 | 18 |
| 7 | Marupes SC | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 14 | 16 |
| 8 | Skanstes SK | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 18 | 13 |
| 9 | Riga FC II | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 22 | 13 |
| 10 | RFS II | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 25 | 8 |
| 11 | FK Tukums 2000/TSS II | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | 8 |
| 12 | JFK Ventspils | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 19 | 6 |
| 13 | FK Smiltene/BJSS | 11 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 31 | 4 |
| 14 | Rezeknes FA | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 35 | 4 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | JDFS Alberts | FK Beitar Riga/Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Rezeknes FA | 4-2 W | 2-2 D |
| Skanstes SK | 4-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Metta/LU | 1-4 L | 2-2 D |
| Valmiera FC | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| FK Smiltene/BJSS | 3-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Marupes SC | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 1 L | 4 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: FK Beitar Riga/Mariners (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
JDFS Alberts
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga |
2-1 | 4-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 20/06 | FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 13/06 | Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 31/05 | FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga |
2-0 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 27/05 | Iecava Latvia Cup |
3-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 24/05 | Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga |
2-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga |
0-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 03/05 | FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga |
3-1 | 3-2 | 10 | 8 | W |
| 25/04 | Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 20/06 | JDFS Alberts Latvia Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 14/06 | Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 30/05 | Rfk/Rfs Latvia Cup |
2-0 | 11-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga |
0-2 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 16/05 | Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga |
0-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 8 | W |
| 02/05 | Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga |
1-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 25/04 | RFS II Latvia 1. Liga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 19/04 | Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga |
2-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in JDFS Alberts vs FK Beitar Riga/Mariners?
According to our model, the most likely result is a JDFS Alberts win (38%). Probabilities: JDFS Alberts 38%, draw 24%, FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 37%.
How many goals are expected in JDFS Alberts vs FK Beitar Riga/Mariners?
The model expects 3.38 goals (JDFS Alberts 1.7 · FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 1.68), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in JDFS Alberts vs FK Beitar Riga/Mariners?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.