Prediction: Marupes SC vs FK Smiltene/BJSS
Expected goals: 3.4 (Marupes SC 2.4 · FK Smiltene/BJSS 1). The model gives 68% home, 19% draw, 14% away. Over 3.25 goals (51%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 2-1.
Recent form leaves Marupes SC with 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses over 10 games; FK Smiltene/BJSS has piled up 1-2-7 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 3 wins for Marupes SC and 1 for FK Smiltene/BJSS, with 2 draws.
| Marupes SC | Draw | FK Smiltene/BJSS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 19% | 13% |
| Market | 68% | 18% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marupes SC (rating 1489 vs 1439).
- H2H favours Marupes SC: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Marupes SC | FK Smiltene/BJSS | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.7 | 1.1 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.6 | 0.2 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 0/40/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.6 | 1.9 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.3 | 4.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marupes SC 3–2–1 FK Smiltene/BJSS
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/25 Latvia 1. Liga | Marupes SC | 0-3 HT 0-1 | FK Smiltene/BJSS |
| 19/04/25 Latvia 1. Liga | FK Smiltene/BJSS | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Marupes SC |
| 06/10/24 Latvia 1. Liga | Marupes SC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FK Smiltene/BJSS |
| 22/06/24 Latvia Cup | Marupes SC | 3-1 HT 3-0 | FK Smiltene/BJSS |
| 15/06/24 Latvia 1. Liga | FK Smiltene/BJSS | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Marupes SC |
| 11/06/22 Latvia Cup | Marupes SC | 3-3 HT 1-2 | FK Smiltene/BJSS |
Standings · Latvia 1. Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metta/LU | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 39 | 10 | 28 |
| 2 | Valmiera FC | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 11 | 26 |
| 3 | FK Beitar Riga/Mariners | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 21 | 10 | 25 |
| 4 | Saldus SS/Leevon | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 11 | 24 |
| 5 | JDFS Alberts | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 16 | 20 |
| 6 | SK Super Nova II | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 16 | 18 |
| 7 | Marupes SC | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 14 | 16 |
| 8 | Skanstes SK | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 18 | 13 |
| 9 | Riga FC II | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 22 | 13 |
| 10 | RFS II | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 25 | 8 |
| 11 | FK Tukums 2000/TSS II | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | 8 |
| 12 | JFK Ventspils | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 19 | 6 |
| 13 | FK Smiltene/BJSS | 11 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 31 | 4 |
| 14 | Rezeknes FA | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 35 | 4 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Marupes SC | FK Smiltene/BJSS |
|---|---|---|
| FK Beitar Riga/Mariners | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Riga FC II | 4-0 W | 0-2 L |
| FK Tukums 2000/TSS II | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| SK Super Nova II | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| JDFS Alberts | 1-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Valmiera FC | 2-3 L | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 3 L | 0 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Marupes SC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marupes SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 19/06 | FK Aliance Latvia Cup |
0-0 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 14/06 | JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 30/05 | Jfc Jelgava Latvia Cup |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | RFS II Latvia 1. Liga |
0-2 | 1-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga |
0-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
FK Smiltene/BJSS
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga |
0-1 | 2-4 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 22/06 | Valmiera FC Latvia Cup |
1-3 | 1-4 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 14/06 | Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Futbola Parks Academy Latvia Cup |
0-1 | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 24/05 | FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 13/05 | SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 03/05 | JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga |
1-3 | 2-3 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 25/04 | Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga |
0-5 | 0-8 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 18/04 | Leevon PPK Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marupes SC vs FK Smiltene/BJSS?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Marupes SC win (68%). Probabilities: Marupes SC 68%, draw 19%, FK Smiltene/BJSS 14%.
How many goals are expected in Marupes SC vs FK Smiltene/BJSS?
The model expects 3.4 goals (Marupes SC 2.4 · FK Smiltene/BJSS 1), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Marupes SC vs FK Smiltene/BJSS?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.