Prediction: Riga FC II vs FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
Expected goals: 3.51 (Riga FC II 2.01 · FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 1.5). The model gives 49% home, 23% draw, 28% away. Over 3.25 goals (53%) and both teams to score (59%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Over its last 10 matches, Riga FC II sits at 4-1-5 (W-D-L), while FK Tukums 2000/TSS II arrives on a 2-2-6 run. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 5 wins for Riga FC II and 1 for FK Tukums 2000/TSS II.
| Riga FC II | Draw | FK Tukums 2000/TSS II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 23% | 28% |
| Market | 49% | 23% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Riga FC II (rating 1489 vs 1446).
- H2H favours Riga FC II: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Riga FC II | FK Tukums 2000/TSS II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.9 | 1.5 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 4.4 | 2.5 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.4 | 2.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Riga FC II 5–0–1 FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/25 Latvia 1. Liga | FK Tukums 2000/TSS II | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Riga FC II |
| 07/07/25 Latvia 1. Liga | Riga FC II | 1-0 HT 0-0 | FK Tukums 2000/TSS II |
| 27/09/24 Latvia 1. Liga | Riga FC II | 9-0 HT 3-0 | FK Tukums 2000/TSS II |
| 26/05/24 Latvia 1. Liga | FK Tukums 2000/TSS II | 0-7 HT 0-1 | Riga FC II |
| 04/11/23 Latvia 1. Liga | FK Tukums 2000/TSS II | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Riga FC II |
| 22/07/23 Latvia 1. Liga | Riga FC II | 3-2 HT 1-2 | FK Tukums 2000/TSS II |
Standings · Latvia 1. Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metta/LU | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 39 | 10 | 28 |
| 2 | Valmiera FC | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 11 | 26 |
| 3 | FK Beitar Riga/Mariners | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 21 | 10 | 25 |
| 4 | Saldus SS/Leevon | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 11 | 24 |
| 5 | JDFS Alberts | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 16 | 20 |
| 6 | SK Super Nova II | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 16 | 18 |
| 7 | Marupes SC | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 14 | 16 |
| 8 | Skanstes SK | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 18 | 13 |
| 9 | Riga FC II | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 22 | 13 |
| 10 | RFS II | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 25 | 8 |
| 11 | FK Tukums 2000/TSS II | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | 8 |
| 12 | JFK Ventspils | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 19 | 6 |
| 13 | FK Smiltene/BJSS | 11 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 31 | 4 |
| 14 | Rezeknes FA | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 35 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Riga FC II | FK Tukums 2000/TSS II |
|---|---|---|
| FK Smiltene/BJSS | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Rezeknes FA | 1-2 L | 4-1 W |
| Marupes SC | 0-4 L | 1-2 L |
| Leevon PPK | 2-3 L | 1-4 L |
| Skanstes SK | 0-2 L | 2-0 W |
| JFK Ventspils | 4-2 W | 2-2 D |
| FK Beitar Riga/Mariners | 2-2 D | 1-3 L |
| JDFS Alberts | 2-1 W | 1-6 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 4 L | 2 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Riga FC II (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Riga FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | RFS II Latvia 1. Liga |
1-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 14/06 | FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 0-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Leevon PPK Latvia 1. Liga |
1-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 04/05 | Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 12 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga |
3-0 | 4-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 19/04 | FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 10/04 | JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga |
2-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 06/04 | Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga |
0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 14/06 | Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga |
0-1 | 1-4 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 31/05 | JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga |
0-2 | 1-6 | – | – | L |
| 24/05 | FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 16/05 | Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga |
1-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Leevon PPK Latvia 1. Liga |
1-2 | 1-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 27/04 | Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 11/04 | FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 04/04 | JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga |
2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Riga FC II vs FK Tukums 2000/TSS II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Riga FC II win (49%). Probabilities: Riga FC II 49%, draw 23%, FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 28%.
How many goals are expected in Riga FC II vs FK Tukums 2000/TSS II?
The model expects 3.51 goals (Riga FC II 2.01 · FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 1.5), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Riga FC II vs FK Tukums 2000/TSS II?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.