Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 19/07, 16:00

Prediction: FK Smiltene/BJSS vs Rezeknes FA

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.5Total

FK Smiltene/BJSS1.96

Rezeknes FA1.54

1X2

47% 23% 30%

FK Smiltene/BJSS Draw Rezeknes FA

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Smiltene/BJSS 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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Rezeknes FA 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FK Smiltene/BJSS 3–2–1 Rezeknes FA (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Smiltene/BJSS 1417 · Rezeknes FA 1423

	FK Smiltene/BJSS	Draw	Rezeknes FA
Our model	47%	24%	30%
Market	47%	23%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.5 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Smiltene/BJSS: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Smiltene/BJSS	Rezeknes FA
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.8	1 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.4	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.3	1.7 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.91

X4.00

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.8

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:20 +3’	1.91	4.00	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Smiltene/BJSS 3–2–1 Rezeknes FA

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/11/25 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Smiltene/BJSS	2-2 HT 1-1	Rezeknes FA
06/07/25 Latvia 1. Liga	Rezeknes FA	2-1 HT 1-0	FK Smiltene/BJSS
28/09/24 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Smiltene/BJSS	3-3 HT 2-0	Rezeknes FA
25/05/24 Latvia 1. Liga	Rezeknes FA	0-4 HT 0-2	FK Smiltene/BJSS
07/10/23 Latvia 1. Liga	Rezeknes FA	1-2 HT 0-2	FK Smiltene/BJSS
03/06/23 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Smiltene/BJSS	5-1 HT 3-1	Rezeknes FA

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metta/LU	12	10	1	1	42	11	31
2	Valmiera FC	12	9	2	1	32	12	29
3	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	12	8	4	0	25	10	28
4	Saldus SS/Leevon	12	7	3	2	20	15	24
5	JDFS Alberts	12	6	2	4	25	20	20
6	Marupes SC	12	6	1	5	22	15	19
7	SK Super Nova II	12	5	4	3	19	17	19
8	Riga FC II	12	5	1	6	19	22	16
9	Skanstes SK	12	4	1	7	20	24	13
10	JFK Ventspils	12	2	4	6	15	20	10
11	RFS II	12	2	3	7	15	26	9
12	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	12	2	2	8	16	31	8
13	Rezeknes FA	12	1	2	9	10	36	5
14	FK Smiltene/BJSS	12	0	4	8	12	33	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Smiltene/BJSS	Rezeknes FA
Valmiera FC	1-4 L	1-3 L
Riga FC II	0-2 L	2-1 W
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	1-1 D	1-4 L
SK Super Nova II	0-2 L	0-1 L
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	0-1 L	2-2 D
JDFS Alberts	2-3 L	2-4 L
Metta/LU	0-8 L	0-5 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 6 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Rezeknes FA (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Smiltene/BJSS

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/07	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-2	2	5	L
28/06	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	2-4	6	1	L
22/06	Valmiera FC Latvia Cup	1-3	1-4	2	8	L
14/06	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
30/05	Futbola Parks Academy Latvia Cup	0-1	5-1	–	–	W
24/05	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
13/05	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
09/05	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-1	2	8	L
03/05	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	1-3	2-3	5	8	L
25/04	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-5	0-8	0	0	L

Rezeknes FA

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/07	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
27/06	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	2-4	1	4	L
14/06	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-3	8	5	L
30/05	FK Kekava/Auda Latvia Cup	0-0	1-2	5	1	L
23/05	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
16/05	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-4	–	–	L
09/05	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
02/05	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	2-2	3	3	D
26/04	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-3	0	3	L
19/04	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	0-5	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Smiltene/BJSS vs Rezeknes FA?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Smiltene/BJSS win (47%). Probabilities: FK Smiltene/BJSS 47%, draw 23%, Rezeknes FA 30%.

How many goals are expected in FK Smiltene/BJSS vs Rezeknes FA?

The model expects 3.5 goals (FK Smiltene/BJSS 1.96 · Rezeknes FA 1.54), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Smiltene/BJSS vs Rezeknes FA?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.