Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 05/09, 16:30

Prediction: FK Beitar Riga/Mariners vs Rezeknes FA

Team pages: FK Beitar Riga/Mariners · Rezeknes FA

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.12Total

FK Beitar Riga/Mariners3.06

Rezeknes FA1.06

1X2

82% 11% 7%

FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Draw Rezeknes FA

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWLDWWWW

Rezeknes FA 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

WLLDLLLLLL

Head-to-head

FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 2–1–0 Rezeknes FA (3 last)

Rezeknes FA2-2FK Beitar Riga/Mariners
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners6-0Rezeknes FA
Rezeknes FA2-5FK Beitar Riga/Mariners

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 1598 · Rezeknes FA 1386

	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	Draw	Rezeknes FA
Our model	77%	14%	9%
Market	87%	8%	5%

Estimated total (ours) 4.12 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Beitar Riga/Mariners (rating 1598 vs 1386).
H2H favours FK Beitar Riga/Mariners: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	Rezeknes FA
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 0.9	0.9 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.3	1.8 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0	5.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.07

X12.00

219.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3)1.85

2 (+3)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 41.88

Under 41.93

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.07 → 1.07	Bet365 1.07
X	12.00 → 12.00	Bet365 12.00
2	19.00 → 19.00	Bet365 19.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:24 +2’	1.07	12.00	19.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 2–1–0 Rezeknes FA

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Latvia 1. Liga	Rezeknes FA	2-2 HT 0-1	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners
18/10/25 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	6-0 HT 2-0	Rezeknes FA
14/06/25 Latvia 1. Liga	Rezeknes FA	2-5 HT 1-0	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Valmiera FC	18	15	2	1	54	16	47
2	Metta/LU	18	15	2	1	77	14	47
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	18	13	3	2	33	21	42
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	18	12	5	1	40	17	41
5	JDFS Alberts	18	10	4	4	37	24	34
6	Marupes SC	19	8	1	10	29	32	25
7	SK Super Nova II	19	6	6	7	26	28	24
8	Skanstes SK	18	7	2	9	37	35	23
9	Riga FC II	18	6	3	9	25	34	21
10	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	17	3	3	11	23	51	12
11	JFK Ventspils	17	2	6	9	19	29	12
12	RFS II	18	3	3	12	24	51	12
13	FK Smiltene/BJSS	18	2	4	12	21	53	10
14	Rezeknes FA	18	1	2	15	14	54	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	Rezeknes FA
RFS II	3-1 W	0-3 L
Riga FC II	3-1 W	2-1 W
JFK Ventspils	1-1 D	1-1 D
Saldus SS/Leevon	1-2 L	1-2 L
JDFS Alberts	4-0 W	2-4 L
Marupes SC	2-0 W	1-2 L
Skanstes SK	2-0 W	1-5 L
Metta/LU	2-2 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: FK Beitar Riga/Mariners (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Beitar Riga/Mariners

DWWWLDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-1	6	0	W
24/08	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	3-1	1	5	W
09/08	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	4-2	–	–	W
31/07	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-0	3	10	W
25/07	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-1	13	4	D
18/07	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-2	6	8	L
04/07	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	4-0	9	2	W
27/06	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
14/06	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	2-0	1	7	W
23/05	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	2-2	–	–	D

Rezeknes FA

WLLDLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-6	–	–	L
23/08	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
08/08	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	1-5	–	–	L
01/08	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-2	2	5	L
25/07	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
19/07	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-1	1	10	L
04/07	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
27/06	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	2-4	1	4	L
14/06	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-3	8	5	L
23/05	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Beitar Riga/Mariners vs Rezeknes FA?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Beitar Riga/Mariners win (82%). Probabilities: FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 82%, draw 11%, Rezeknes FA 7%.

How many goals are expected in FK Beitar Riga/Mariners vs Rezeknes FA?

The model expects 4.12 goals (FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 3.06 · Rezeknes FA 1.06), with a 50% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Beitar Riga/Mariners vs Rezeknes FA?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.