Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 12/09, 13:00

Prediction: FK Smiltene/BJSS vs FK Beitar Riga/Mariners

Team pages: FK Smiltene/BJSS · FK Beitar Riga/Mariners

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4Total

FK Smiltene/BJSS1.03

FK Beitar Riga/Mariners2.97

1X2

10% 14% 76%

FK Smiltene/BJSS Draw FK Beitar Riga/Mariners

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Smiltene/BJSS 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWLLLL

FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWLDWWWWW

Head-to-head

FK Smiltene/BJSS 0–3 FK Beitar Riga/Mariners (3 last)

FK Beitar Riga/Mariners1-0FK Smiltene/BJSS
FK Smiltene/BJSS1-3FK Beitar Riga/Mariners
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners3-1FK Smiltene/BJSS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Smiltene/BJSS 1394 · FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 1610

	FK Smiltene/BJSS	Draw	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners
Our model	9%	15%	76%
Market	10%	13%	77%

Estimated total (ours) 4 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Beitar Riga/Mariners (rating 1394 vs 1610).
H2H favours FK Beitar Riga/Mariners: 3-0-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Smiltene/BJSS	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 3.1	2.8 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.3	1.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	80/10/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.9	3.5 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.3	4.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

19.00

X7.00

21.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.25)1.85

2 (-2.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 41.98

Under 41.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00
X	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
2	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:16 +4’	9.00	7.00	1.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Smiltene/BJSS 0–0–3 FK Beitar Riga/Mariners

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Smiltene/BJSS
25/10/25 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Smiltene/BJSS	1-3 HT 1-1	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners
28/06/25 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	3-1 HT 2-0	FK Smiltene/BJSS

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Valmiera FC	19	15	3	1	56	18	48
2	Metta/LU	19	15	3	1	79	16	48
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	19	14	3	2	36	21	45
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	19	13	5	1	45	17	44
5	JDFS Alberts	19	11	4	4	40	26	37
6	Marupes SC	19	8	1	10	29	32	25
7	Riga FC II	19	7	3	9	28	36	24
8	SK Super Nova II	19	6	6	7	26	28	24
9	Skanstes SK	19	7	2	10	39	38	23
10	RFS II	19	4	3	12	28	52	15
11	JFK Ventspils	18	2	6	10	20	33	12
12	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	18	3	3	12	23	54	12
13	FK Smiltene/BJSS	19	2	4	13	23	56	10
14	Rezeknes FA	19	1	2	16	14	59	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Smiltene/BJSS	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners
JDFS Alberts	2-3 L	4-0 W
Saldus SS/Leevon	2-4 L	1-2 L
JFK Ventspils	2-1 W	1-1 D
RFS II	3-5 L	3-1 W
Rezeknes FA	1-0 W	5-0 W
Marupes SC	1-2 L	2-0 W
Skanstes SK	2-4 L	2-0 W
Riga FC II	0-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 6 L	6 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Beitar Riga/Mariners (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Smiltene/BJSS

LLLWLWLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	2-3	8	10	L
29/08	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-6	–	–	L
23/08	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	2-3	2-4	3	2	L
08/08	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-3	1-4	2	3	L
02/08	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	2-1	9	4	W
25/07	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	3-5	5	7	L
19/07	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-0	5	10	W
04/07	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-2	2	5	L
28/06	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	2-4	6	1	L
14/06	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-2	4	4	L

FK Beitar Riga/Mariners

WWWLDWWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	5-0	11	5	W
29/08	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-1	6	0	W
24/08	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	3-1	1	5	W
09/08	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	4-2	–	–	W
31/07	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-0	3	10	W
25/07	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-1	13	4	D
18/07	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
04/07	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	4-0	9	2	W
27/06	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
14/06	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	2-0	1	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Smiltene/BJSS vs FK Beitar Riga/Mariners?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Beitar Riga/Mariners win (76%). Probabilities: FK Smiltene/BJSS 10%, draw 14%, FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 76%.

How many goals are expected in FK Smiltene/BJSS vs FK Beitar Riga/Mariners?

The model expects 4 goals (FK Smiltene/BJSS 1.03 · FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 2.97), with a 53% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Smiltene/BJSS vs FK Beitar Riga/Mariners?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.