Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 14/09, 16:00

Prediction: RFS II vs Skanstes SK

Team pages: RFS II · Skanstes SK

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.21Total

RFS II2.45

Skanstes SK1.76

1X2

52% 21% 27%

RFS II Draw Skanstes SK

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

RFS II 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLDLWLLLLW

Skanstes SK 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLLWWDWL

Head-to-head

RFS II 4–2 Skanstes SK (6 last)

Skanstes SK4-0RFS II
Skanstes SK0-3RFS II
RFS II4-0Skanstes SK
RFS II5-1Skanstes SK
Skanstes SK0-5RFS II
RFS II1-3Skanstes SK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · RFS II 1454 · Skanstes SK 1503

	RFS II	Draw	Skanstes SK
Our model	52%	20%	27%
Market	52%	21%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 4.21 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Skanstes SK (rating 1454 vs 1503).
H2H favours RFS II: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	RFS II	Skanstes SK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 3	2.4 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.6	1.3 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.1	2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.70

X4.33

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.88

Under 3.751.93

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 4.7

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 15:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 1.70▼	Pinn 1.80 ★
X	4.00 → 4.33▲	Pinn 4.36
2	2.10 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:21 +1’	2.55	4.00	2.10
04:01 +1’	2.50▼	4.20▲	2.10
04:56 +5’	2.25▼	4.10▼	2.30▲
10:00 +1’	2.30▲	4.10	2.30
12:56 +6’	1.85▼	4.20▲	2.88▲
14:58 +4’	1.70▼	4.33▲	3.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:11 +50’	2.23	3.93	2.37
12:00 +2’	2.19▼	3.91▼	2.42▲
12:50 +13’	1.79▼	4.27▲	3.01▲
14:03 +60’	1.80▲	4.36▲	3.05▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 5 odds moves recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

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Head-to-head (H2H) · RFS II 4–0–2 Skanstes SK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Latvia 1. Liga	Skanstes SK	4-0 HT 0-0	RFS II
22/08/25 Latvia 1. Liga	Skanstes SK	0-3 HT 0-2	RFS II
21/04/25 Latvia 1. Liga	RFS II	4-0 HT 4-0	Skanstes SK
28/09/24 Latvia 1. Liga	RFS II	5-1 HT 3-1	Skanstes SK
26/05/24 Latvia 1. Liga	Skanstes SK	0-5 HT 0-3	RFS II
27/10/23 Latvia 1. Liga	RFS II	1-3 HT 0-0	Skanstes SK

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Valmiera FC	20	16	3	1	58	19	51
2	Metta/LU	20	16	3	1	86	16	51
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	20	14	4	2	37	22	46
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	20	13	5	2	46	21	44
5	JDFS Alberts	20	11	4	5	41	28	37
6	Marupes SC	20	9	1	10	34	32	28
7	Riga FC II	20	7	4	9	29	37	25
8	SK Super Nova II	20	6	7	7	28	30	25
9	Skanstes SK	19	7	2	10	39	38	23
10	RFS II	19	4	3	12	28	52	15
11	FK Smiltene/BJSS	20	3	4	13	27	57	13
12	JFK Ventspils	19	2	6	11	20	40	12
13	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	19	3	3	13	23	59	12
14	Rezeknes FA	20	1	3	16	16	61	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	RFS II	Skanstes SK
JFK Ventspils	4-1 W	0-3 L
Metta/LU	1-12 L	1-3 L
Valmiera FC	1-2 L	0-3 L
FK Smiltene/BJSS	5-3 W	4-2 W
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	0-2 L	6-2 W
SK Super Nova II	1-1 D	1-1 D
Riga FC II	1-3 L	2-3 L
Rezeknes FA	3-0 W	5-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Skanstes SK (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

RFS II

WLDLWLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	4-1	7	4	W
29/08	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-3	5	0	L
22/08	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-3	2	4	L
08/08	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	1-9	1-12	0	8	L
01/08	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	1-2	13	7	L
25/07	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	5-3	5	7	W
20/07	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-2	7	3	L
05/07	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
27/06	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
14/06	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-0	8	5	W

Skanstes SK

WLLLLWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	2-3	2	4	L
30/08	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	5-2	6-2	2	2	W
23/08	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
08/08	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	5-1	–	–	W
01/08	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	4-2	6	2	W
25/07	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
18/07	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-3	1	5	L
11/07	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	0-3	0-3	10	4	L
04/07	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-3	3	2	L
28/06	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	4-2	3	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in RFS II vs Skanstes SK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a RFS II win (52%). Probabilities: RFS II 52%, draw 21%, Skanstes SK 27%.

How many goals are expected in RFS II vs Skanstes SK?

The model expects 4.21 goals (RFS II 2.45 · Skanstes SK 1.76), with a 53% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in RFS II vs Skanstes SK?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.