Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 12/09, 13:00

Prediction: Metta/LU vs JFK Ventspils

Team pages: Metta/LU · JFK Ventspils

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.43Total

Metta/LU3.21

JFK Ventspils1.21

1X2

84% 9% 7%

Metta/LU Draw JFK Ventspils

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Metta/LU 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDWWWD

JFK Ventspils 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLDWLDLLDL

Head-to-head

Metta/LU 1–0 JFK Ventspils (1 last)

JFK Ventspils0-1Metta/LU

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Metta/LU 1619 · JFK Ventspils 1427

	Metta/LU	Draw	JFK Ventspils
Our model	76%	14%	10%
Market	91%	6%	4%

Estimated total (ours) 4.43 goals · Bet365 line 4.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Metta/LU (rating 1619 vs 1427).
High corners: 14.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Metta/LU	JFK Ventspils
Goals for / against (FT)	5 / 1	1.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	2.6 / 0.3	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.9 / 9.6	2.4 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.04

X17.00

226.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3.75)1.93

2 (+3.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 4.751.98

Under 4.751.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 4.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.04 → 1.04	Bet365 1.04
X	17.00 → 17.00	Bet365 17.00
2	26.00 → 26.00	Bet365 26.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:00 +20’	1.04	17.00	26.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Metta/LU 1–0–0 JFK Ventspils

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Latvia 1. Liga	JFK Ventspils	0-1 HT 0-1	Metta/LU

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Valmiera FC	19	15	3	1	56	18	48
2	Metta/LU	19	15	3	1	79	16	48
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	19	14	3	2	36	21	45
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	19	13	5	1	45	17	44
5	JDFS Alberts	19	11	4	4	40	26	37
6	Marupes SC	19	8	1	10	29	32	25
7	Riga FC II	19	7	3	9	28	36	24
8	SK Super Nova II	19	6	6	7	26	28	24
9	Skanstes SK	19	7	2	10	39	38	23
10	RFS II	19	4	3	12	28	52	15
11	JFK Ventspils	18	2	6	10	20	33	12
12	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	18	3	3	12	23	54	12
13	FK Smiltene/BJSS	19	2	4	13	23	56	10
14	Rezeknes FA	19	1	2	16	14	59	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Metta/LU	JFK Ventspils
Valmiera FC	2-2 D	0-2 L
FK Smiltene/BJSS	6-0 W	1-2 L
Rezeknes FA	2-0 W	1-1 D
RFS II	12-1 W	1-4 L
Riga FC II	2-2 D	1-1 D
Marupes SC	4-0 W	2-1 W
Skanstes SK	3-1 W	3-0 W
SK Super Nova II	7-3 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	6 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Metta/LU (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Metta/LU

WWWWWDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	2-2	14	10	D
29/08	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	6-0	–	–	W
23/08	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
08/08	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	9-1	12-1	16	8	W
01/08	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	2-2	9	5	D
27/07	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	6-0	9-0	14	0	W
18/07	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	4-0	7	4	W
04/07	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-1	10	2	W
28/06	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
13/06	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	5-0	7-3	4	3	W

JFK Ventspils

WLDWLDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-4	2	4	L
29/08	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
08/08	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
02/08	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-2	10	4	L
25/07	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
18/07	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-3	4	2	L
11/07	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	3-0	1	4	W
04/07	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
28/06	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
14/06	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Metta/LU vs JFK Ventspils?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Metta/LU win (84%). Probabilities: Metta/LU 84%, draw 9%, JFK Ventspils 7%.

How many goals are expected in Metta/LU vs JFK Ventspils?

The model expects 4.43 goals (Metta/LU 3.21 · JFK Ventspils 1.21), with a 56% chance of under 4.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Metta/LU vs JFK Ventspils?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.