Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 12/09, 15:00

Prediction: JDFS Alberts vs Valmiera FC

Team pages: JDFS Alberts · Valmiera FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.19Total

JDFS Alberts1.39

Valmiera FC1.8

1X2

29% 24% 47%

JDFS Alberts Draw Valmiera FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

JDFS Alberts 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWLWDDWWWW

Valmiera FC 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWD

Head-to-head

JDFS Alberts 0–2–4 Valmiera FC (6 last)

Valmiera FC1-1JDFS Alberts
Valmiera FC0-0JDFS Alberts
JDFS Alberts0-3Valmiera FC
JDFS Alberts1-6Valmiera FC
Valmiera FC3-0JDFS Alberts
Valmiera FC1-0JDFS Alberts

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JDFS Alberts 1557 · Valmiera FC 1623

	JDFS Alberts	Draw	Valmiera FC
Our model	29%	25%	46%
Market	30%	23%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.19 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valmiera FC (rating 1557 vs 1623).
H2H favours Valmiera FC: 4-2-0.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JDFS Alberts	Valmiera FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.2	3.4 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	1.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.4	2.7 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.4	4.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.90

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:01 +33’	3.00	3.90	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JDFS Alberts 0–2–4 Valmiera FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Latvia 1. Liga	Valmiera FC	1-1 HT 0-0	JDFS Alberts
07/10/17 Latvia 1. Liga	Valmiera FC	0-0 HT 0-0	JDFS Alberts
17/06/17 Latvia 1. Liga	JDFS Alberts	0-3 HT 0-2	Valmiera FC
13/08/16 Latvia 1. Liga	JDFS Alberts	1-6 HT 1-3	Valmiera FC
16/04/16 Latvia 1. Liga	Valmiera FC	3-0 HT 2-0	JDFS Alberts
08/08/15 Latvia 1. Liga	Valmiera FC	1-0 HT 0-0	JDFS Alberts

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Valmiera FC	19	15	3	1	56	18	48
2	Metta/LU	19	15	3	1	79	16	48
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	19	14	3	2	36	21	45
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	19	13	5	1	45	17	44
5	JDFS Alberts	19	11	4	4	40	26	37
6	Marupes SC	19	8	1	10	29	32	25
7	Riga FC II	19	7	3	9	28	36	24
8	SK Super Nova II	19	6	6	7	26	28	24
9	Skanstes SK	19	7	2	10	39	38	23
10	RFS II	19	4	3	12	28	52	15
11	JFK Ventspils	18	2	6	10	20	33	12
12	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	18	3	3	12	23	54	12
13	FK Smiltene/BJSS	19	2	4	13	23	56	10
14	Rezeknes FA	19	1	2	16	14	59	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JDFS Alberts	Valmiera FC
FK Smiltene/BJSS	3-2 W	4-1 W
Marupes SC	2-0 W	4-1 W
RFS II	3-1 W	2-1 W
Riga FC II	2-0 W	3-0 W
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	1-1 D	4-1 W
JFK Ventspils	3-1 W	2-0 W
Rezeknes FA	4-2 W	6-1 W
Saldus SS/Leevon	0-0 D	4-1 W
Record vs common	6 W 2 D 0 L	8 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Valmiera FC (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JDFS Alberts

DWLWDDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	3-2	10	10	W
29/08	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	2-0	9	4	W
22/08	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	3-1	8	4	W
08/08	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
03/08	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
25/07	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
18/07	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	3-1	12	2	W
04/07	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	0-4	4	2	L
27/06	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	4-2	7	4	W
13/06	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-0	1	6	D

Valmiera FC

WWWWWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	2-2	1	10	D
30/08	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	6-1	–	–	W
22/08	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	4-1	7	4	W
08/08	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	4-1	7	3	W
01/08	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	2-1	1	7	W
27/07	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-0	5	1	W
18/07	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
05/07	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	4-1	5	7	W
28/06	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-0	10	5	W
14/06	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	4-1	4	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JDFS Alberts vs Valmiera FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Valmiera FC win (47%). Probabilities: JDFS Alberts 29%, draw 24%, Valmiera FC 47%.

How many goals are expected in JDFS Alberts vs Valmiera FC?

The model expects 3.19 goals (JDFS Alberts 1.39 · Valmiera FC 1.8), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in JDFS Alberts vs Valmiera FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.