Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 20/07, 18:00

Prediction: FK Tukums 2000/TSS II vs RFS II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.3Total

FK Tukums 2000/TSS II1.6

RFS II1.7

1X2

36% 24% 40%

FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Draw RFS II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLWDLLLL

RFS II 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDLLWWLD

Head-to-head

FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 1–1–4 RFS II (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 1433 · RFS II 1455

	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	Draw	RFS II
Our model	35%	25%	39%
Market	36%	24%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.3 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours RFS II: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	RFS II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.6	1.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.1	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.7	2.2 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.75

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.4

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
05:01 +5’	2.50	3.75	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 1–1–4 RFS II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/10/25 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	2-2 HT 0-1	RFS II
15/06/25 Latvia 1. Liga	RFS II	4-1 HT 0-0	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
02/11/24 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	1-2 HT 1-1	RFS II
21/07/24 Latvia 1. Liga	RFS II	6-0 HT 4-0	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
11/08/23 Latvia 1. Liga	RFS II	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
15/04/23 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	0-3 HT 0-1	RFS II

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metta/LU	13	11	1	1	46	11	34
2	Valmiera FC	13	10	2	1	35	12	32
3	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	13	8	4	1	26	12	28
4	Saldus SS/Leevon	13	8	3	2	22	16	27
5	JDFS Alberts	13	7	2	4	28	21	23
6	Marupes SC	13	6	1	6	22	19	19
7	SK Super Nova II	12	5	4	3	19	17	19
8	Riga FC II	12	5	1	6	19	22	16
9	Skanstes SK	13	4	1	8	20	27	13
10	JFK Ventspils	13	2	4	7	16	23	10
11	RFS II	12	2	3	7	15	26	9
12	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	12	2	2	8	16	31	8
13	Rezeknes FA	12	1	2	9	10	36	5
14	FK Smiltene/BJSS	12	0	4	8	12	33	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	RFS II
Riga FC II	0-2 L	1-3 L
SK Super Nova II	1-3 L	1-1 D
JDFS Alberts	1-6 L	0-2 L
Rezeknes FA	4-1 W	3-0 W
Marupes SC	1-2 L	4-1 W
Leevon PPK	1-4 L	1-2 L
Skanstes SK	2-0 W	0-4 L
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	1-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 6 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: RFS II (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Tukums 2000/TSS II

LWLLWDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/07	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
27/06	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	1-3	8	3	L
14/06	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-4	9	1	L
31/05	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	1-6	–	–	L
24/05	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
16/05	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	4-1	–	–	W
09/05	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	1-2	3	1	L
02/05	Leevon PPK Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	1-4	5	3	L
27/04	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
11/04	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-3	7	1	L

RFS II

LLLDLLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/07	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
27/06	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
14/06	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-0	8	5	W
23/05	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	4-1	3	4	W
16/05	Leevon PPK Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-2	5	7	L
10/05	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-4	7	3	L
02/05	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-0	9	6	D
25/04	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-2	2	6	L
19/04	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-2	2	1	L
11/04	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-3	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Tukums 2000/TSS II vs RFS II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an RFS II win (40%). Probabilities: FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 36%, draw 24%, RFS II 40%.

How many goals are expected in FK Tukums 2000/TSS II vs RFS II?

The model expects 3.3 goals (FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 1.6 · RFS II 1.7), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Tukums 2000/TSS II vs RFS II?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.