Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 05/09, 14:00

Prediction: JDFS Alberts vs FK Smiltene/BJSS

Team pages: JDFS Alberts · FK Smiltene/BJSS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.87Total

JDFS Alberts2.93

FK Smiltene/BJSS0.93

1X2

78% 14% 9%

JDFS Alberts Draw FK Smiltene/BJSS

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0 9%

Recent form · 10 last

JDFS Alberts 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWLWDDWWW

FK Smiltene/BJSS 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

DLLLWLWLLL

Head-to-head

JDFS Alberts 6–0 FK Smiltene/BJSS (6 last)

FK Smiltene/BJSS2-3JDFS Alberts
FK Smiltene/BJSS2-4JDFS Alberts
JDFS Alberts5-3FK Smiltene/BJSS
JDFS Alberts2-1FK Smiltene/BJSS
FK Smiltene/BJSS1-2JDFS Alberts
JDFS Alberts3-0FK Smiltene/BJSS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JDFS Alberts 1567 · FK Smiltene/BJSS 1412

	JDFS Alberts	Draw	FK Smiltene/BJSS
Our model	77%	14%	8%
Market	78%	13%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 3.87 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JDFS Alberts (rating 1567 vs 1412).
H2H favours JDFS Alberts: 6-0-0.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JDFS Alberts	FK Smiltene/BJSS
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.1	1.3 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.6 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6	2.6 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.17

X7.00

210.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)1.88

2 (+2.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.17 → 1.17	Bet365 1.17
X	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
2	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10%

Time*	1	X	2
13:52 +2’	1.17	7.00	10.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · JDFS Alberts 6–0–0 FK Smiltene/BJSS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Smiltene/BJSS	2-3 HT 1-3	JDFS Alberts
27/07/25 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Smiltene/BJSS	2-4 HT 1-2	JDFS Alberts
01/06/25 Latvia Cup	JDFS Alberts	5-3 HT 3-3	FK Smiltene/BJSS
29/03/25 Latvia 1. Liga	JDFS Alberts	2-1 HT 1-0	FK Smiltene/BJSS
03/08/24 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Smiltene/BJSS	1-2 HT 0-1	JDFS Alberts
07/04/24 Latvia 1. Liga	JDFS Alberts	3-0 HT 2-0	FK Smiltene/BJSS

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Valmiera FC	18	15	2	1	54	16	47
2	Metta/LU	18	15	2	1	77	14	47
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	18	13	3	2	33	21	42
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	18	12	5	1	40	17	41
5	JDFS Alberts	18	10	4	4	37	24	34
6	Marupes SC	19	8	1	10	29	32	25
7	SK Super Nova II	19	6	6	7	26	28	24
8	Skanstes SK	18	7	2	9	37	35	23
9	Riga FC II	18	6	3	9	25	34	21
10	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	17	3	3	11	23	51	12
11	JFK Ventspils	17	2	6	9	19	29	12
12	RFS II	18	3	3	12	24	51	12
13	FK Smiltene/BJSS	18	2	4	12	21	53	10
14	Rezeknes FA	18	1	2	15	14	54	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JDFS Alberts	FK Smiltene/BJSS
Marupes SC	2-0 W	1-2 L
RFS II	3-1 W	3-5 L
Riga FC II	2-0 W	0-2 L
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	1-1 D	1-1 D
JFK Ventspils	3-1 W	2-1 W
Rezeknes FA	4-2 W	1-0 W
Saldus SS/Leevon	0-0 D	2-4 L
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: JDFS Alberts (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JDFS Alberts

WDWLWDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	2-0	9	4	W
22/08	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	3-1	8	4	W
08/08	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
03/08	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
25/07	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
18/07	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	3-1	12	2	W
04/07	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	0-4	4	2	L
27/06	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	4-2	7	4	W
13/06	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
31/05	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	6-1	–	–	W

FK Smiltene/BJSS

DLLLWLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-6	–	–	L
23/08	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	2-3	2-4	3	2	L
08/08	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-3	1-4	2	3	L
02/08	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	2-1	9	4	W
25/07	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	3-5	5	7	L
19/07	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-0	5	10	W
04/07	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-2	2	5	L
28/06	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	2-4	6	1	L
14/06	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
24/05	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-1	6	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JDFS Alberts vs FK Smiltene/BJSS?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JDFS Alberts win (78%). Probabilities: JDFS Alberts 78%, draw 14%, FK Smiltene/BJSS 9%.

How many goals are expected in JDFS Alberts vs FK Smiltene/BJSS?

The model expects 3.87 goals (JDFS Alberts 2.93 · FK Smiltene/BJSS 0.93), with a 52% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in JDFS Alberts vs FK Smiltene/BJSS?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.