Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: RFS II vs JFK Ventspils

Team pages: RFS II · JFK Ventspils

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

RFS II1.49

JFK Ventspils1.72

1X2

33% 24% 43%

RFS II Draw JFK Ventspils

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

RFS II 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWLDLWLLLL

JFK Ventspils 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDWLDLLD

Head-to-head

RFS II 2–3–1 JFK Ventspils (6 last)

JFK Ventspils0-0RFS II
JFK Ventspils0-2RFS II
RFS II1-1JFK Ventspils
JFK Ventspils0-0RFS II
RFS II5-2JFK Ventspils
JFK Ventspils1-0RFS II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · RFS II 1475 · JFK Ventspils 1434

	RFS II	Draw	JFK Ventspils
Our model	33%	25%	42%
Market	33%	24%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.21 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours RFS II (rating 1475 vs 1434).
H2H favours RFS II: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	RFS II	JFK Ventspils
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 3	1.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.5	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.7	2.6 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.80

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
16:05 +4’	2.70	3.80	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · RFS II 2–3–1 JFK Ventspils

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Latvia 1. Liga	JFK Ventspils	0-0 HT 0-0	RFS II
27/09/25 Latvia 1. Liga	JFK Ventspils	0-2 HT 0-1	RFS II
18/05/25 Latvia 1. Liga	RFS II	1-1 HT 1-1	JFK Ventspils
10/11/24 Latvia 1. Liga	JFK Ventspils	0-0 HT 0-0	RFS II
28/07/24 Latvia 1. Liga	RFS II	5-2 HT 4-1	JFK Ventspils
08/10/23 Latvia 1. Liga	JFK Ventspils	1-0 HT 1-0	RFS II

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Valmiera FC	18	15	2	1	54	16	47
2	Metta/LU	18	15	2	1	77	14	47
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	18	13	3	2	33	21	42
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	18	12	5	1	40	17	41
5	JDFS Alberts	18	10	4	4	37	24	34
6	Marupes SC	19	8	1	10	29	32	25
7	SK Super Nova II	19	6	6	7	26	28	24
8	Skanstes SK	18	7	2	9	37	35	23
9	Riga FC II	18	6	3	9	25	34	21
10	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	17	3	3	11	23	51	12
11	JFK Ventspils	17	2	6	9	19	29	12
12	RFS II	18	3	3	12	24	51	12
13	FK Smiltene/BJSS	18	2	4	12	21	53	10
14	Rezeknes FA	18	1	2	15	14	54	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	RFS II	JFK Ventspils
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	1-3 L	1-1 D
JDFS Alberts	1-3 L	1-3 L
Valmiera FC	1-2 L	0-2 L
FK Smiltene/BJSS	5-3 W	1-2 L
SK Super Nova II	1-1 D	0-2 L
Riga FC II	1-3 L	1-1 D
Rezeknes FA	3-0 W	1-1 D
Marupes SC	4-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: RFS II (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

RFS II

WWLDLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-3	5	0	L
22/08	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-3	2	4	L
08/08	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	1-9	1-12	0	8	L
01/08	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	1-2	13	7	L
25/07	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	5-3	5	7	W
20/07	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-2	7	3	L
05/07	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
27/06	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
14/06	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-0	8	5	W
23/05	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	4-1	3	4	W

JFK Ventspils

LWLDWLDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
08/08	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
02/08	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-2	10	4	L
25/07	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
18/07	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-3	4	2	L
11/07	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	3-0	1	4	W
04/07	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
28/06	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
14/06	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
23/05	Leevon PPK Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-2	9	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in RFS II vs JFK Ventspils?

According to our model, the most likely result is an JFK Ventspils win (43%). Probabilities: RFS II 33%, draw 24%, JFK Ventspils 43%.

How many goals are expected in RFS II vs JFK Ventspils?

The model expects 3.21 goals (RFS II 1.49 · JFK Ventspils 1.72), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in RFS II vs JFK Ventspils?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.