Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 05/09, 13:00
Prediction: Valmiera FC vs Metta/LU
Team pages: Valmiera FC · Metta/LU
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.04Total
Valmiera FC1.73
Metta/LU2.3
1X2
Valmiera FC
Draw
Metta/LU
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 62%
Most likely score
1-2 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Valmiera FC
9-1-0 (W-D-L)
Metta/LU
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Valmiera FC
4–1–1
Metta/LU
(6 last)
- Metta/LU1-2Valmiera FC
- Valmiera FC4-0Metta/LU
- Valmiera FC3-0Metta/LU
- Metta/LU1-1Valmiera FC
- Metta/LU0-2Valmiera FC
- Metta/LU4-1Valmiera FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valmiera FC 1642 · Metta/LU 1599
| Valmiera FC | Draw | Metta/LU | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 21% | 50% |
| Market | 28% | 22% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.04 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valmiera FC (rating 1642 vs 1599).
- H2H favours Valmiera FC: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 14.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Valmiera FC | Metta/LU | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.2 / 0.6 | 5 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.2 | 2.6 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/30/0% | 70/20/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.3 | 4.6 / 9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.1 | 3.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Valmiera FC 4–1–1 Metta/LU
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Latvia 1. Liga | Metta/LU | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Valmiera FC |
| 31/08/24 Latvia Virsliga | Valmiera FC | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Metta/LU |
| 20/06/24 Latvia Virsliga | Valmiera FC | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Metta/LU |
| 01/05/24 Latvia Virsliga | Metta/LU | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Valmiera FC |
| 10/03/24 Latvia Virsliga | Metta/LU | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Valmiera FC |
| 29/10/23 Latvia Virsliga | Metta/LU | 4-1 HT 1-1 | Valmiera FC |
Standings · Latvia 1. Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valmiera FC | 18 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 54 | 16 | 47 |
| 2 | Metta/LU | 18 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 77 | 14 | 47 |
| 3 | Saldus SS/Leevon | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 21 | 42 |
| 4 | FK Beitar Riga/Mariners | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 40 | 17 | 41 |
| 5 | JDFS Alberts | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 37 | 24 | 34 |
| 6 | Marupes SC | 19 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 29 | 32 | 25 |
| 7 | SK Super Nova II | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 26 | 28 | 24 |
| 8 | Skanstes SK | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 37 | 35 | 23 |
| 9 | Riga FC II | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 25 | 34 | 21 |
| 10 | FK Tukums 2000/TSS II | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 23 | 51 | 12 |
| 11 | JFK Ventspils | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 29 | 12 |
| 12 | RFS II | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 24 | 51 | 12 |
| 13 | FK Smiltene/BJSS | 18 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 21 | 53 | 10 |
| 14 | Rezeknes FA | 18 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 14 | 54 | 5 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Valmiera FC | Metta/LU |
|---|---|---|
| Rezeknes FA | 6-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Marupes SC | 4-1 W | 4-0 W |
| FK Smiltene/BJSS | 4-1 W | 6-0 W |
| RFS II | 2-1 W | 12-1 W |
| Riga FC II | 3-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Skanstes SK | 3-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Saldus SS/Leevon | 4-1 W | 3-1 W |
| FK Tukums 2000/TSS II | 4-1 W | 9-0 W |
| SK Super Nova II | 0-0 D | 7-3 W |
| Record vs common | 8 W 1 D 0 L | 8 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Metta/LU (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valmiera FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga |
1-1 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 22/08 | Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga |
3-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | RFS II Latvia 1. Liga |
2-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 27/07 | Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 18/07 | Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 05/07 | Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga |
2-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 28/06 | JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 14/06 | FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga |
1-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 26/05 | SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
Metta/LU
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/08 | Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 08/08 | RFS II Latvia 1. Liga |
9-1 | 12-1 | 16 | 8 | W |
| 01/08 | Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 27/07 | FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga |
6-0 | 9-0 | 14 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga |
1-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 04/07 | Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 28/06 | Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga |
5-0 | 7-3 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga |
2-0 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valmiera FC vs Metta/LU?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Metta/LU win (50%). Probabilities: Valmiera FC 28%, draw 22%, Metta/LU 50%.
How many goals are expected in Valmiera FC vs Metta/LU?
The model expects 4.04 goals (Valmiera FC 1.73 · Metta/LU 2.3), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Valmiera FC vs Metta/LU?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.