Football · USA MLS · 29/10, 00:30

Prediction: Toronto FC vs DC United

Team pages: Toronto FC · DC United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

Toronto FC1.95

DC United1.31

1X2

51% 24% 25%

Toronto FC Draw DC United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Toronto FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDWLLLWDWL

DC United 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DWDLDLWLLL

Head-to-head

Toronto FC 2–2–2 DC United (6 last)

DC United2-1Toronto FC
Toronto FC2-0DC United
DC United2-2Toronto FC
Toronto FC1-3DC United
DC United2-2Toronto FC
Toronto FC2-1DC United

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Toronto FC (rating 1484 vs 1443).
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Toronto FC	DC United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.2	1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.4	2.2 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.86

Under 31.97

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:25

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.01 → 2.03▲	Pinn 2.03
X	3.76 → 3.81▲	Pinn 3.81
2	3.34 → 3.38▲	Pinn 3.38

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
01:42 +47’	2.01	3.76	3.34
02:46 +99’	2.03▲	3.81▲	3.38▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Toronto FC 2–2–2 DC United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 USA MLS	DC United	2-1 HT 1-0	Toronto FC
10/05/25 USA MLS	Toronto FC	2-0 HT 0-0	DC United
23/02/25 USA MLS	DC United	2-2 HT 2-1	Toronto FC
01/09/24 USA MLS	Toronto FC	1-3 HT 0-0	DC United
02/06/24 USA MLS	DC United	2-2 HT 0-2	Toronto FC
28/05/23 USA MLS	Toronto FC	2-1 HT 1-0	DC United

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	31	21	7	3	66	23	70
2	New England Revolution	31	17	4	10	51	42	55
3	Inter Miami CF	31	15	10	6	73	53	55
4	Chicago Fire	31	15	6	10	55	46	51
5	Charlotte FC	31	13	8	10	55	48	47
6	Philadelphia Union	31	13	7	11	62	50	46
7	Orlando City SC	31	12	6	13	60	72	42
8	FC Cincinnati	31	11	9	11	64	71	42
9	New York Red Bulls	31	11	6	14	41	56	39
10	Columbus Crew	31	11	5	15	50	49	38
11	Toronto FC	31	8	12	11	48	59	36
12	New York City FC	31	8	11	12	45	43	35
13	DC United	31	7	12	12	38	55	33
14	Atlanta United	31	8	6	17	39	54	30
15	CF Montreal	31	6	7	18	36	62	25

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Toronto FC	DC United
Columbus Crew	2-4 L	2-1 W
New York Red Bulls	2-0 W	2-1 W
Orlando City SC	3-3 D	1-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Toronto FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Toronto FC

DDWLLLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-2	2-4	5	2	L
18/10	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
15/10	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-1	3-3	4	4	D
10/10	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	2-1	8	4	W
27/09	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-2	0-2	3	1	L
20/09	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-3	4	4	L
13/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
10/09	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-1	2-1	3	1	W
06/09	Chicago Fire USA MLS	2-1	4-4	6	4	D
30/08	New York City FC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	7	6	D

DC United

DWDLDLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-1	0-2	8	3	L
22/10	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-1	1-2	9	4	L
18/10	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-2	1-4	8	4	L
15/10	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	2-0	2-1	3	6	W
11/10	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-2	0-4	2	0	L
27/09	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-2	3-3	10	1	D
20/09	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
13/09	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
10/09	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-0	2-1	3	5	W
30/08	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	5	0	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Toronto FC vs DC United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Toronto FC win (51%). Probabilities: Toronto FC 51%, draw 24%, DC United 25%.

How many goals are expected in Toronto FC vs DC United?

The model expects 3.26 goals (Toronto FC 1.95 · DC United 1.31), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Toronto FC vs DC United?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.