Football · USA MLS · 02/11, 03:45

Prediction: Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo

Team pages: Portland Timbers · Houston Dynamo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.15Total

Portland Timbers1.91

Houston Dynamo1.24

1X2

52% 24% 24%

Portland Timbers Draw Houston Dynamo

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Portland Timbers 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDLLLDLDWW

Houston Dynamo 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DWLDLDDDDW

Head-to-head

Portland Timbers 1–1–4 Houston Dynamo (6 last)

Houston Dynamo3-2Portland Timbers
Houston Dynamo1-0Portland Timbers
Portland Timbers3-1Houston Dynamo
Portland Timbers2-2Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo1-0Portland Timbers
Portland Timbers1-3Houston Dynamo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Portland Timbers 1486 · Houston Dynamo 1505

	Portland Timbers	Draw	Houston Dynamo
Our model	52%	24%	24%
Market	53%	23%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.15 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Houston Dynamo: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Portland Timbers	Houston Dynamo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.1	1.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.1	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.2	1.8 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.80

X4.10

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.80▼	Pinn 1.83 ★
X	3.80 → 4.10▲	Bet365 4.10
2	3.60 → 3.90▲	Pinn 3.97

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 5.6% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:27 +5’	1.83	3.80	3.60
14:52 +4’	1.80▼	4.10▲	3.90▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:42 +20’	1.93	3.83	3.55
05:00 +26’	1.94▲	3.88▲	3.60▲
05:26 +53’	1.94	3.86▼	3.57▼
06:59 +20’	1.83▼	3.96▲	3.88▲
13:20 +12’	1.85▲	3.85▼	3.89▲
15:38 +15’	1.83▼	3.88▲	3.97▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Portland Timbers 1–1–4 Houston Dynamo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	3-2 HT 0-1	Portland Timbers
21/09/25 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	1-0 HT 1-0	Portland Timbers
31/03/25 USA MLS	Portland Timbers	3-1 HT 2-1	Houston Dynamo
02/06/24 USA MLS	Portland Timbers	2-2 HT 1-1	Houston Dynamo
17/03/24 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	1-0 HT 1-0	Portland Timbers
22/10/23 USA MLS	Portland Timbers	1-3 HT 0-1	Houston Dynamo

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	32	17	7	8	67	33	58
2	FC Dallas	32	15	9	8	58	49	54
3	St. Louis City SC	32	14	9	9	58	47	51
4	Houston Dynamo	32	14	9	9	42	39	51
5	San Jose Earthquakes	32	13	10	9	54	47	49
6	Los Angeles FC	32	12	11	9	50	35	47
7	Colorado Rapids	32	12	7	13	44	43	43
8	Seattle Sounders	32	11	10	11	41	40	43
9	Real Salt Lake	32	12	6	14	50	49	42
10	LA Galaxy	32	10	11	11	45	54	41
11	Portland Timbers	32	11	7	14	57	60	40
12	Minnesota United	32	9	11	12	50	56	38
13	San Diego FC	32	8	11	13	56	62	35
14	Austin FC	32	8	10	14	41	59	34
15	Sporting Kansas City	32	6	4	22	38	80	22

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Portland Timbers	Houston Dynamo
Charlotte FC	3-2 W	0-0 D
Sporting Kansas City	3-3 D	0-2 L
San Jose Earthquakes	1-3 L	0-1 L
FC Dallas	1-2 L	2-2 D
Minnesota United	5-4 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Portland Timbers (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Portland Timbers

WDLLLDLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	2-0	3-2	4	5	W
25/10	Charlotte FC USA MLS	2-1	3-2	9	2	W
18/10	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
15/10	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
11/10	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	2-1	3-3	1	1	D
27/09	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-3	1-3	9	3	L
20/09	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
13/09	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-1	1-2	5	1	L
10/09	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-1	2-2	9	5	D
06/09	Minnesota United USA MLS	3-2	5-4	4	4	W

Houston Dynamo

DWLDLDDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
25/10	Minnesota United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
18/10	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-1	2-2	5	9	D
15/10	San Diego FC USA MLS	3-2	3-3	3	6	D
11/10	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	2-2	5	2	D
27/09	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-2	0-2	8	6	L
20/09	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-0	2-2	3	0	D
13/09	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
10/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	2-1	1	5	W
06/09	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	6	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Portland Timbers win (52%). Probabilities: Portland Timbers 52%, draw 24%, Houston Dynamo 24%.

How many goals are expected in Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo?

The model expects 3.15 goals (Portland Timbers 1.91 · Houston Dynamo 1.24), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.