Football · USA MLS · 29/10, 00:30

Prediction: New York City FC vs Atlanta United

Team pages: New York City FC · Atlanta United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

New York City FC1.64

Atlanta United1.17

1X2

47% 27% 26%

New York City FC Draw Atlanta United

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

New York City FC 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DDLWLDLLDD

Atlanta United 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDLDWDLWLL

Head-to-head

New York City FC 1–4–1 Atlanta United (6 last)

Atlanta United2-2New York City FC
New York City FC4-0Atlanta United
Atlanta United4-3New York City FC
Atlanta United2-2New York City FC
New York City FC1-1Atlanta United
Atlanta United2-2New York City FC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	New York City FC	Atlanta United
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.3	1.4 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.4	2.7 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	4.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 32.01

Under 31.83

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:25

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.88 → 1.90▲	Pinn 1.90
X	3.78 → 3.83▲	Pinn 3.83
2	3.73 → 3.77▲	Pinn 3.77

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
01:43 +46’	1.88	3.78	3.73
02:42 +103’	1.90▲	3.83▲	3.77▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · New York City FC 1–4–1 Atlanta United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/09/26 USA MLS	Atlanta United	2-2 HT 1-1	New York City FC
13/06/25 USA MLS	New York City FC	4-0 HT 1-0	Atlanta United
30/03/25 USA MLS	Atlanta United	4-3 HT 1-1	New York City FC
18/07/24 USA MLS	Atlanta United	2-2 HT 2-0	New York City FC
07/04/24 USA MLS	New York City FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Atlanta United
22/06/23 USA MLS	Atlanta United	2-2 HT 1-1	New York City FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	31	21	7	3	66	23	70
2	New England Revolution	31	17	4	10	51	42	55
3	Inter Miami CF	31	15	10	6	73	53	55
4	Chicago Fire	31	15	6	10	55	46	51
5	Charlotte FC	31	13	8	10	55	48	47
6	Philadelphia Union	31	13	7	11	62	50	46
7	Orlando City SC	31	12	6	13	60	72	42
8	FC Cincinnati	31	11	9	11	64	71	42
9	New York Red Bulls	31	11	6	14	41	56	39
10	Columbus Crew	31	11	5	15	50	49	38
11	Toronto FC	31	8	12	11	48	59	36
12	New York City FC	31	8	11	12	45	43	35
13	DC United	31	7	12	12	38	55	33
14	Atlanta United	31	8	6	17	39	54	30
15	CF Montreal	31	6	7	18	36	62	25

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New York City FC	Atlanta United
Orlando City SC	2-2 D	2-3 L
Inter Miami CF	0-2 L	1-3 L
Chicago Fire	1-2 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: New York City FC (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

New York City FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-1	2-2	9	5	D
18/10	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
15/10	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-2	0-2	4	2	L
10/10	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
27/09	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-1	2-2	3	2	D
19/09	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
13/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
10/09	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-1	1-2	12	2	L
05/09	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
30/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	6	D

Atlanta United

LDLDWDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-1	2-3	4	7	L
18/10	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-1	1-3	5	5	L
15/10	CF Montreal USA MLS	2-0	3-0	6	3	W
11/10	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-0	1-3	5	5	L
27/09	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	2-2	4	2	D
20/09	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
13/09	DC United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
10/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-1	2-3	5	3	L
06/09	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-2	2-2	6	9	D
30/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-1	0-2	11	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New York City FC vs Atlanta United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a New York City FC win (47%). Probabilities: New York City FC 47%, draw 27%, Atlanta United 26%.

How many goals are expected in New York City FC vs Atlanta United?

The model expects 2.81 goals (New York City FC 1.64 · Atlanta United 1.17), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in New York City FC vs Atlanta United?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.