Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 18/07, 15:00
Prediction: FK Kyzylzhar vs Tobol Kostanay
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.39Total
FK Kyzylzhar1.12
Tobol Kostanay1.27
1X2
FK Kyzylzhar
Draw
Tobol Kostanay
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
FK Kyzylzhar
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Tobol Kostanay
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FK Kyzylzhar
1–2–3
Tobol Kostanay
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Kyzylzhar 1392 · Tobol Kostanay 1509
| FK Kyzylzhar | Draw | Tobol Kostanay | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 30% | 39% |
| Market | 33% | 28% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tobol Kostanay (rating 1392 vs 1509).
- H2H favours Tobol Kostanay: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Kyzylzhar | Tobol Kostanay | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 2 | 1.3 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/80/10% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 3.9 | 2.1 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.2 | 3.8 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Kyzylzhar 1–2–3 Tobol Kostanay
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/26 Kazakhstan Premier League | Tobol Kostanay | 2-0 HT 0-0 | FK Kyzylzhar |
| 02/08/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Kyzylzhar | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Tobol Kostanay |
| 04/05/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | Tobol Kostanay | 2-1 HT 1-1 | FK Kyzylzhar |
| 11/08/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | Tobol Kostanay | 1-2 HT 1-1 | FK Kyzylzhar |
| 31/03/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Kyzylzhar | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Tobol Kostanay |
| 27/09/23 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Kyzylzhar | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Tobol Kostanay |
Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 12 | 40 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 18 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 34 | 12 | 39 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 19 | 29 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 22 | 24 | 27 |
| 5 | FC Elimai Semey | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 19 | 26 |
| 6 | FK Ulytau | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 15 | 26 |
| 7 | FK Aktobe | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 18 | 25 |
| 8 | FK Zhenys | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 19 | 21 |
| 9 | FK Atyrau | 16 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 18 |
| 10 | Zhetysu | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 25 | 18 |
| 11 | Tobol Kostanay | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 25 | 18 |
| 12 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 18 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 20 | 18 |
| 13 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 15 | 22 | 17 |
| 14 | FC Altai Semey | 17 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 18 | 16 |
| 15 | FK Kyzylzhar | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 25 | 15 |
| 16 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 17 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 11 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Kyzylzhar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 27/06 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-2 | 2-4 | 3 | 11 | L |
| 17/06 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 28/05 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 23/05 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 17/05 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 13/05 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Cup |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
Tobol Kostanay
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 28/06 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 28/05 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 23/05 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 13/05 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 09/05 | Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FK Kyzylzhar vs Tobol Kostanay?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Tobol Kostanay win (39%). Probabilities: FK Kyzylzhar 32%, draw 29%, Tobol Kostanay 39%.
How many goals are expected in FK Kyzylzhar vs Tobol Kostanay?
The model expects 2.39 goals (FK Kyzylzhar 1.12 · Tobol Kostanay 1.27), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in FK Kyzylzhar vs Tobol Kostanay?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.