Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 26/07, 16:00

Prediction: Kairat Almaty vs Ordabasy

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

Kairat Almaty1.48

Ordabasy1.22

1X2

42% 28% 30%

Kairat Almaty Draw Ordabasy

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Kairat Almaty 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Ordabasy 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Kairat Almaty 4–2 Ordabasy (6 last)

Ordabasy2-1Kairat Almaty
Ordabasy0-1Kairat Almaty
Ordabasy1-0Kairat Almaty

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kairat Almaty 1595 · Ordabasy 1598

	Kairat Almaty	Draw	Ordabasy
Our model	42%	28%	30%
Market	42%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Kairat Almaty: 4-0-2.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kairat Almaty	Ordabasy
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 0.9	2.2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.7	2.7 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.20

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 15:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.25 → 3.20▼	Bet365 3.20
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
09:00 +19’	2.15	3.25	3.00
12:48 +7’	2.15	3.20▼	3.00
13:48 +6’	2.15	3.25▲	3.00
15:00 +4’	2.15	3.20▼	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kairat Almaty 4–0–2 Ordabasy

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/05/26 Kazakhstan Premier League	Ordabasy	2-1 HT 1-1	Kairat Almaty
29/06/25 Kazakhstan Premier League	Ordabasy	0-1 HT 0-1	Kairat Almaty
14/05/25 Kazakhstan Cup	Ordabasy	1-0 HT 1-0	Kairat Almaty
08/03/25 Kazakhstan Premier League	Kairat Almaty	4-0 HT 3-0	Ordabasy
02/11/24 Kazakhstan Premier League	Kairat Almaty	2-1 HT 1-0	Ordabasy
31/03/24 Kazakhstan Premier League	Ordabasy	1-2 HT 0-1	Kairat Almaty

Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ordabasy	18	13	4	1	33	13	43
2	Kairat Almaty	19	12	6	1	37	13	42
3	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	18	8	6	4	24	24	30
4	FC Astana	17	8	5	4	25	19	29
5	FK Aktobe	18	8	4	6	26	20	28
6	FK Ulytau	18	7	6	5	15	16	27
7	FC Elimai Semey	17	7	5	5	25	22	26
8	FK Zhenys	18	5	7	6	15	20	22
9	Tobol Kostanay	18	5	4	9	20	26	19
10	Kaisar Kyzylorda	19	3	10	6	14	21	19
11	FK Atyrau	17	3	9	5	13	16	18
12	Zhetysu	18	4	6	8	21	27	18
13	FK Kaspyi Aktau	18	5	3	10	16	23	18
14	FK Kyzylzhar	18	4	4	10	18	26	16
15	FC Altai Semey	18	3	7	8	14	22	16
16	Irtysh Pavlodar	17	1	8	8	14	22	11

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Kairat Almaty

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	Omonia Nicosia UEFA Champions League Qualifying	0-1	0-1	11	5	L
18/07	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	3-0	3-1	6	2	W
15/07	Sutjeska Niksic UEFA Champions League Qualifying	0-0	2-0	3	6	W
08/07	Sutjeska Niksic UEFA Champions League Qualifying	0-0	2-1	7	4	W
02/07	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	3-0	5-0	5	2	W
27/06	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	3-1	5	5	W
21/06	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	2-2	4-2	3	11	W
17/06	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	3-0	6	4	W
13/06	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-1	10	3	D
28/05	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	1-2	1	5	L

Ordabasy

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	3-1	3	7	W
15/07	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Cup	2-0	3-1	6	3	W
11/07	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	2-3	9	3	L
05/07	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
28/06	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-0	6	1	W
20/06	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	2-0	7	2	W
14/06	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	3-1	5	6	W
28/05	Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	2-1	2	5	W
23/05	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	3-0	5	6	W
17/05	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	2-1	2	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kairat Almaty vs Ordabasy?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kairat Almaty win (42%). Probabilities: Kairat Almaty 42%, draw 28%, Ordabasy 30%.

How many goals are expected in Kairat Almaty vs Ordabasy?

The model expects 2.7 goals (Kairat Almaty 1.48 · Ordabasy 1.22), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Kairat Almaty vs Ordabasy?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.