Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 25/07, 17:00

Prediction: FK Aktobe vs Okzhetpes Kokshetau

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

FK Aktobe1.66

Okzhetpes Kokshetau1.24

1X2

46% 26% 28%

FK Aktobe Draw Okzhetpes Kokshetau

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Aktobe 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDDDWWLWLW

Okzhetpes Kokshetau 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWDDWLLLW

Head-to-head

FK Aktobe 3–2–1 Okzhetpes Kokshetau (6 last)

Okzhetpes Kokshetau2-2FK Aktobe
FK Aktobe2-1Okzhetpes Kokshetau
Okzhetpes Kokshetau1-3FK Aktobe

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Aktobe 1532 · Okzhetpes Kokshetau 1492

	FK Aktobe	Draw	Okzhetpes Kokshetau
Our model	46%	26%	28%
Market	46%	26%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Aktobe (rating 1532 vs 1492).
H2H favours FK Aktobe: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Aktobe	Okzhetpes Kokshetau
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.4	2.6 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.2	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.40

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.95▲	Bet365 1.95
X	3.60 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40
2	4.50 → 3.25▼	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
08:59 +12’	1.61	3.60	4.50
10:08 +4’	1.95▲	3.40▼	3.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Aktobe 3–2–1 Okzhetpes Kokshetau

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/05/26 Kazakhstan Premier League	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	2-2 HT 1-1	FK Aktobe
17/08/25 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Aktobe	2-1 HT 0-0	Okzhetpes Kokshetau
17/05/25 Kazakhstan Premier League	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	1-3 HT 1-1	FK Aktobe
22/10/23 Kazakhstan Premier League	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	1-1 HT 2-0	FK Aktobe
09/03/23 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Aktobe	5-1 HT 3-1	Okzhetpes Kokshetau
20/10/19 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Aktobe	1-2 HT 1-1	Okzhetpes Kokshetau

Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ordabasy	18	13	4	1	33	13	43
2	Kairat Almaty	19	12	6	1	37	13	42
3	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	18	8	6	4	24	24	30
4	FC Astana	17	8	5	4	25	19	29
5	FK Aktobe	18	8	4	6	26	20	28
6	FK Ulytau	18	7	6	5	15	16	27
7	FC Elimai Semey	17	7	5	5	25	22	26
8	FK Zhenys	18	5	7	6	15	20	22
9	Tobol Kostanay	18	5	4	9	20	26	19
10	Kaisar Kyzylorda	19	3	10	6	14	21	19
11	FK Atyrau	17	3	9	5	13	16	18
12	Zhetysu	18	4	6	8	21	27	18
13	FK Kaspyi Aktau	18	5	3	10	16	23	18
14	FK Kyzylzhar	18	4	4	10	18	26	16
15	FC Altai Semey	18	3	7	8	14	22	16
16	Irtysh Pavlodar	17	1	8	8	14	22	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Aktobe	Okzhetpes Kokshetau
FC Altai Semey	4-2 W	1-0 W
FC Astana	2-3 L	1-0 W
Zhetysu	2-1 W	2-0 W
FK Atyrau	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Okzhetpes Kokshetau (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Aktobe

DDDDWWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	4-2	5	9	W
12/07	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	2-3	2	2	L
05/07	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-1	9	7	W
27/06	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-1	1	5	L
21/06	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-0	2	6	W
14/06	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	2-0	8	6	W
28/05	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	2-2	6	6	D
23/05	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
17/05	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-1	5	7	D
13/05	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Cup	1-1	1-1	8	8	D

Okzhetpes Kokshetau

DWWDDWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
12/07	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-3	3	1	L
02/07	Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League	0-3	0-5	2	2	L
27/06	Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	1-3	4	5	L
21/06	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	2-1	5	4	W
13/06	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	2-2	5	6	D
28/05	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	2-2	6	6	D
22/05	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
16/05	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
09/05	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Aktobe vs Okzhetpes Kokshetau?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Aktobe win (46%). Probabilities: FK Aktobe 46%, draw 26%, Okzhetpes Kokshetau 28%.

How many goals are expected in FK Aktobe vs Okzhetpes Kokshetau?

The model expects 2.9 goals (FK Aktobe 1.66 · Okzhetpes Kokshetau 1.24), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Aktobe vs Okzhetpes Kokshetau?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.