Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 26/07, 16:00

Prediction: FC Astana vs FC Altai Semey

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

FC Astana1.93

FC Altai Semey0.87

1X2

62% 22% 16%

FC Astana Draw FC Altai Semey

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

FC Astana 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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FC Altai Semey 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Astana 0–2–0 FC Altai Semey (2 last)

FC Altai Semey1-1FC Astana
FC Altai Semey1-1FC Astana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Astana 1524 · FC Altai Semey 1466

	FC Astana	Draw	FC Altai Semey
Our model	61%	24%	15%
Market	62%	21%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Astana (rating 1524 vs 1466).
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Astana	FC Altai Semey
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1	1.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5	1.3 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.20

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
09:17 +2’	1.44	4.20	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Astana 0–2–0 FC Altai Semey

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/05/26 Kazakhstan Premier League	FC Altai Semey	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Astana
10/04/19 Kazakhstan Cup	FC Altai Semey	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Astana

Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ordabasy	18	13	4	1	33	13	43
2	Kairat Almaty	19	12	6	1	37	13	42
3	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	18	8	6	4	24	24	30
4	FC Astana	17	8	5	4	25	19	29
5	FK Aktobe	18	8	4	6	26	20	28
6	FK Ulytau	18	7	6	5	15	16	27
7	FC Elimai Semey	17	7	5	5	25	22	26
8	FK Zhenys	18	5	7	6	15	20	22
9	Tobol Kostanay	18	5	4	9	20	26	19
10	Kaisar Kyzylorda	19	3	10	6	14	21	19
11	FK Atyrau	17	3	9	5	13	16	18
12	Zhetysu	18	4	6	8	21	27	18
13	FK Kaspyi Aktau	18	5	3	10	16	23	18
14	FK Kyzylzhar	18	4	4	10	18	26	16
15	FC Altai Semey	18	3	7	8	14	22	16
16	Irtysh Pavlodar	17	1	8	8	14	22	11

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Astana	FC Altai Semey
FK Aktobe	3-2 W	2-4 L
Okzhetpes Kokshetau	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Astana (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Astana

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/07	FC Dinamo City UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-0	1-2	5	11	L
12/07	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	3-2	4	2	W
09/07	FC Dinamo City UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	1-0	4	0	W
03/07	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-0	9	4	W
28/06	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-2	1	9	D
21/06	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
14/06	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	2-0	6	2	W
27/05	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
22/05	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	3-0	6	3	W
16/05	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-1	8	3	L

FC Altai Semey

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	2-4	5	9	L
15/07	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Cup	0-2	1-3	6	3	L
11/07	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
04/07	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
28/06	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	1-3	4	5	L
20/06	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	3-3	1	6	D
14/06	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-2	1	6	L
27/05	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
22/05	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
17/05	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	2-1	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Astana vs FC Altai Semey?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Astana win (62%). Probabilities: FC Astana 62%, draw 22%, FC Altai Semey 16%.

How many goals are expected in FC Astana vs FC Altai Semey?

The model expects 2.79 goals (FC Astana 1.93 · FC Altai Semey 0.87), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Astana vs FC Altai Semey?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.