Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 26/07, 14:00
Prediction: Tobol Kostanay vs FK Atyrau
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.2Total
Tobol Kostanay1.35
FK Atyrau0.85
1X2
Tobol Kostanay
Draw
FK Atyrau
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Tobol Kostanay
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
FK Atyrau
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tobol Kostanay
1–3–2
FK Atyrau
(6 last)
- FK Atyrau1-1Tobol Kostanay
- FK Atyrau1-0Tobol Kostanay
- Tobol Kostanay5-0FK Atyrau
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tobol Kostanay 1494 · FK Atyrau 1489
| Tobol Kostanay | Draw | FK Atyrau | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 31% | 22% |
| Market | 49% | 26% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.2 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours FK Atyrau: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tobol Kostanay | FK Atyrau | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.3 | 0.8 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5.3 | 1.3 / 3.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.4 | 3.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tobol Kostanay 1–3–2 FK Atyrau
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/05/26 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Atyrau | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Tobol Kostanay |
| 13/09/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Atyrau | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Tobol Kostanay |
| 30/05/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | Tobol Kostanay | 5-0 HT 3-0 | FK Atyrau |
| 31/08/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | Tobol Kostanay | 1-1 HT 0-1 | FK Atyrau |
| 23/06/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Atyrau | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Tobol Kostanay |
| 19/06/24 Kazakhstan Cup | FK Atyrau | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Tobol Kostanay |
Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 33 | 13 | 43 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 19 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 37 | 13 | 42 |
| 3 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 24 | 24 | 30 |
| 4 | FC Astana | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 19 | 29 |
| 5 | FK Aktobe | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 20 | 28 |
| 6 | FK Ulytau | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 16 | 27 |
| 7 | FC Elimai Semey | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 22 | 26 |
| 8 | FK Zhenys | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 20 | 22 |
| 9 | Tobol Kostanay | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 26 | 19 |
| 10 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 19 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 21 | 19 |
| 11 | FK Atyrau | 17 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 16 | 18 |
| 12 | Zhetysu | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 27 | 18 |
| 13 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 16 | 23 | 18 |
| 14 | FK Kyzylzhar | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 26 | 16 |
| 15 | FC Altai Semey | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 16 |
| 16 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 17 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 11 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tobol Kostanay | FK Atyrau |
|---|---|---|
| Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 3-1 W | 0-0 D |
| FC Altai Semey | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tobol Kostanay
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Panevezys UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 18/07 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 12/07 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 28/06 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 28/05 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 23/05 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
FK Atyrau
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 05/07 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 27/06 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 21/06 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 13/06 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 28/05 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 23/05 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 17/05 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 09/05 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 03/05 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tobol Kostanay vs FK Atyrau?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Tobol Kostanay win (48%). Probabilities: Tobol Kostanay 48%, draw 28%, FK Atyrau 23%.
How many goals are expected in Tobol Kostanay vs FK Atyrau?
The model expects 2.2 goals (Tobol Kostanay 1.35 · FK Atyrau 0.85), with a 57% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Tobol Kostanay vs FK Atyrau?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.