Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 19/07, 17:00
Prediction: Ordabasy vs FC Elimai Semey
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.83Total
Ordabasy1.86
FC Elimai Semey0.98
1X2
Ordabasy
Draw
FC Elimai Semey
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Ordabasy
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
FC Elimai Semey
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ordabasy
2–3–1
FC Elimai Semey
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ordabasy 1585 · FC Elimai Semey 1503
| Ordabasy | Draw | FC Elimai Semey | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 25% | 19% |
| Market | 57% | 24% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ordabasy (rating 1585 vs 1503).
- H2H favours Ordabasy: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ordabasy | FC Elimai Semey | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 0.7 | 1.4 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.3 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 4.8 | 4.3 / 7.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.2 | 5.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ordabasy 2–3–1 FC Elimai Semey
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/26 Kazakhstan Premier League | FC Elimai Semey | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Ordabasy |
| 28/09/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | FC Elimai Semey | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Ordabasy |
| 15/06/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | Ordabasy | 1-1 HT 0-1 | FC Elimai Semey |
| 10/11/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | Ordabasy | 2-1 HT 1-0 | FC Elimai Semey |
| 06/07/24 Kazakhstan League Cup | Ordabasy | 2-2 HT 0-0 | FC Elimai Semey |
| 28/04/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | FC Elimai Semey | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Ordabasy |
Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 12 | 40 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 18 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 34 | 12 | 39 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 19 | 29 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 22 | 24 | 27 |
| 5 | FC Elimai Semey | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 19 | 26 |
| 6 | FK Ulytau | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 15 | 26 |
| 7 | FK Aktobe | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 18 | 25 |
| 8 | FK Zhenys | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 19 | 21 |
| 9 | FK Atyrau | 16 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 18 |
| 10 | Zhetysu | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 25 | 18 |
| 11 | Tobol Kostanay | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 25 | 18 |
| 12 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 18 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 20 | 18 |
| 13 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 15 | 22 | 17 |
| 14 | FC Altai Semey | 17 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 18 | 16 |
| 15 | FK Kyzylzhar | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 25 | 15 |
| 16 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 17 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 11 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ordabasy
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Cup |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 11/07 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 05/07 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 28/06 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 28/05 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 13/05 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
FC Elimai Semey
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Alashkert FC UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 09/07 | Alashkert FC UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 04/07 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 8 | W |
| 27/06 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 21/06 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 14/06 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 28/05 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ordabasy vs FC Elimai Semey?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ordabasy win (57%). Probabilities: Ordabasy 57%, draw 24%, FC Elimai Semey 19%.
How many goals are expected in Ordabasy vs FC Elimai Semey?
The model expects 2.83 goals (Ordabasy 1.86 · FC Elimai Semey 0.98), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Ordabasy vs FC Elimai Semey?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.