Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 01/08, 16:00

Prediction: FK Kyzylzhar vs FK Aktobe

Team pages: FK Kyzylzhar · FK Aktobe

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.37Total

FK Kyzylzhar1.04

FK Aktobe1.33

1X2

29% 29% 42%

FK Kyzylzhar Draw FK Aktobe

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Kyzylzhar 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDWLLLLLDW

FK Aktobe 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDDWWLWLWW

Head-to-head

FK Kyzylzhar 0–3–3 FK Aktobe (6 last)

FK Aktobe0-0FK Kyzylzhar
FK Aktobe1-0FK Kyzylzhar
FK Kyzylzhar1-1FK Aktobe
FK Aktobe2-0FK Kyzylzhar
FK Kyzylzhar0-2FK Aktobe
FK Kyzylzhar0-0FK Aktobe

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Kyzylzhar 1441 · FK Aktobe 1547

	FK Kyzylzhar	Draw	FK Aktobe
Our model	28%	30%	42%
Market	29%	28%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Aktobe (rating 1441 vs 1547).
H2H favours FK Aktobe: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 11.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Kyzylzhar	FK Aktobe
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.8	1.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/90/0%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.6	3.1 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.3	5.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.20

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
05:44 +32’	3.10	3.20	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Kyzylzhar 0–3–3 FK Aktobe

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Aktobe	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Kyzylzhar
27/09/25 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Aktobe	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Kyzylzhar
14/06/25 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Kyzylzhar	1-1 HT 0-0	FK Aktobe
28/07/24 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Aktobe	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Kyzylzhar
12/05/24 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Kyzylzhar	0-2 HT 0-0	FK Aktobe
23/09/23 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Kyzylzhar	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Aktobe

Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kairat Almaty	20	13	6	1	39	14	45
2	Ordabasy	19	13	4	2	34	15	43
3	FC Astana	18	9	5	4	29	20	32
4	FK Aktobe	19	9	4	6	28	21	31
5	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	19	8	6	5	25	26	30
6	FC Elimai Semey	18	7	6	5	26	23	27
7	FK Ulytau	19	7	6	6	16	18	27
8	Tobol Kostanay	19	6	4	9	21	26	22
9	FK Zhenys	19	5	7	7	17	23	22
10	FK Kaspyi Aktau	19	6	3	10	19	25	21
11	Kaisar Kyzylorda	20	3	11	6	15	22	20
12	FK Kyzylzhar	19	5	4	10	20	27	19
13	FK Atyrau	18	3	9	6	13	17	18
14	Zhetysu	19	4	6	9	22	29	18
15	FC Altai Semey	19	3	7	9	15	26	16
16	Irtysh Pavlodar	18	2	8	8	16	23	14

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Kyzylzhar	FK Aktobe
Zhetysu	2-1 W	2-1 W
FC Altai Semey	1-2 L	4-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FK Aktobe (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Kyzylzhar

LDWLLLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	2-1	4	11	W
18/07	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
04/07	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
27/06	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
21/06	Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League	2-2	2-4	3	11	L
17/06	Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-3	1	4	L
13/06	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-2	4	6	L
28/05	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	3-2	5	7	W
23/05	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
17/05	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-2	4	4	L

FK Aktobe

DDDWWLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	2-1	8	8	W
19/07	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	4-2	5	9	W
12/07	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	2-3	2	2	L
05/07	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-1	9	7	W
27/06	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-1	1	5	L
21/06	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-0	2	6	W
14/06	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	2-0	8	6	W
28/05	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	2-2	6	6	D
23/05	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
17/05	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-1	5	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Kyzylzhar vs FK Aktobe?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Aktobe win (42%). Probabilities: FK Kyzylzhar 29%, draw 29%, FK Aktobe 42%.

How many goals are expected in FK Kyzylzhar vs FK Aktobe?

The model expects 2.37 goals (FK Kyzylzhar 1.04 · FK Aktobe 1.33), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Kyzylzhar vs FK Aktobe?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.