Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 02/08, 14:00

Prediction: FK Ulytau vs FC Astana

Team pages: FK Ulytau · FC Astana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.38Total

FK Ulytau0.97

FC Astana1.4

1X2

26% 28% 46%

FK Ulytau Draw FC Astana

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Ulytau 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLDWDLLWDL

FC Astana 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLDWWWLW

Head-to-head

FK Ulytau 0–3 FC Astana (3 last)

FC Astana3-0FK Ulytau
FC Astana4-0FK Ulytau
FK Ulytau0-2FC Astana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Ulytau 1472 · FC Astana 1544

	FK Ulytau	Draw	FC Astana
Our model	25%	30%	46%
Market	26%	26%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Astana (rating 1472 vs 1544).
H2H favours FC Astana: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Ulytau	FC Astana
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1	1.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.9	2.6 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.40

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
06:12 +17’	3.40	3.40	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Ulytau 0–0–3 FC Astana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 Kazakhstan Premier League	FC Astana	3-0 HT 1-0	FK Ulytau
17/08/25 Kazakhstan Premier League	FC Astana	4-0 HT 0-0	FK Ulytau
18/05/25 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Ulytau	0-2 HT 0-0	FC Astana

Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kairat Almaty	20	13	6	1	39	14	45
2	Ordabasy	19	13	4	2	34	15	43
3	FC Astana	18	9	5	4	29	20	32
4	FK Aktobe	19	9	4	6	28	21	31
5	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	19	8	6	5	25	26	30
6	FC Elimai Semey	18	7	6	5	26	23	27
7	FK Ulytau	19	7	6	6	16	18	27
8	Tobol Kostanay	19	6	4	9	21	26	22
9	FK Zhenys	19	5	7	7	17	23	22
10	FK Kaspyi Aktau	19	6	3	10	19	25	21
11	Kaisar Kyzylorda	20	3	11	6	15	22	20
12	FK Kyzylzhar	19	5	4	10	20	27	19
13	FK Atyrau	18	3	9	6	13	17	18
14	Zhetysu	19	4	6	9	22	29	18
15	FC Altai Semey	19	3	7	9	15	26	16
16	Irtysh Pavlodar	18	2	8	8	16	23	14

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Ulytau	FC Astana
Irtysh Pavlodar	1-2 L	2-0 W
FK Zhenys	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FC Astana (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Ulytau

WLDWDLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	1-2	7	3	L
18/07	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
12/07	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
05/07	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
28/06	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-1	8	1	L
20/06	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
14/06	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	2-1	0	3	W
27/05	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
22/05	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
16/05	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	10	W

FC Astana

WDWLDWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	4-1	9	3	W
16/07	FC Dinamo City UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-0	1-2	5	11	L
12/07	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	3-2	4	2	W
09/07	FC Dinamo City UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	1-0	4	0	W
03/07	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-0	9	4	W
28/06	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-2	1	9	D
21/06	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
14/06	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	2-0	6	2	W
27/05	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
22/05	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	3-0	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Ulytau vs FC Astana?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Astana win (46%). Probabilities: FK Ulytau 26%, draw 28%, FC Astana 46%.

How many goals are expected in FK Ulytau vs FC Astana?

The model expects 2.38 goals (FK Ulytau 0.97 · FC Astana 1.4), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Ulytau vs FC Astana?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.