Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 02/08, 17:00
Prediction: Ordabasy vs Tobol Kostanay
Team pages: Ordabasy · Tobol Kostanay
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.63Total
Ordabasy1.76
Tobol Kostanay0.86
1X2
Ordabasy
Draw
Tobol Kostanay
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Ordabasy
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Tobol Kostanay
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ordabasy
2–4
Tobol Kostanay
(6 last)
- Tobol Kostanay0-3Ordabasy
- Ordabasy0-2Tobol Kostanay
- Tobol Kostanay1-0Ordabasy
- Ordabasy2-3Tobol Kostanay
- Tobol Kostanay1-0Ordabasy
- Ordabasy1-0Tobol Kostanay
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ordabasy 1557 · Tobol Kostanay 1537
| Ordabasy | Draw | Tobol Kostanay | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| Market | 59% | 22% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Tobol Kostanay: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ordabasy | Tobol Kostanay | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 0.9 | 1.4 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.8 | 2.2 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.1 | 3.9 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ordabasy 2–0–4 Tobol Kostanay
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 Kazakhstan Premier League | Tobol Kostanay | 0-3 HT 0-0 | Ordabasy |
| 04/10/25 Kazakhstan Cup | Ordabasy | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Tobol Kostanay |
| 24/09/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | Tobol Kostanay | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Ordabasy |
| 17/08/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | Ordabasy | 2-3 HT 0-3 | Tobol Kostanay |
| 19/10/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | Tobol Kostanay | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Ordabasy |
| 12/05/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | Ordabasy | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Tobol Kostanay |
Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kairat Almaty | 20 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 39 | 14 | 45 |
| 2 | Ordabasy | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 34 | 15 | 43 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 32 |
| 4 | FK Aktobe | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 21 | 31 |
| 5 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 25 | 26 | 30 |
| 6 | FC Elimai Semey | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 26 | 23 | 27 |
| 7 | FK Ulytau | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 18 | 27 |
| 8 | Tobol Kostanay | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 26 | 22 |
| 9 | FK Zhenys | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 23 | 22 |
| 10 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 19 | 25 | 21 |
| 11 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 20 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 22 | 20 |
| 12 | FK Kyzylzhar | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 27 | 19 |
| 13 | FK Atyrau | 18 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 18 |
| 14 | Zhetysu | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 22 | 29 | 18 |
| 15 | FC Altai Semey | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 26 | 16 |
| 16 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 18 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 23 | 14 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ordabasy
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 19/07 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 15/07 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Cup |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 11/07 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 05/07 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 28/06 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 28/05 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
Tobol Kostanay
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Panevezys UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 26/07 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 23/07 | Panevezys UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 18/07 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 12/07 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 28/06 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 28/05 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ordabasy vs Tobol Kostanay?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ordabasy win (59%). Probabilities: Ordabasy 59%, draw 23%, Tobol Kostanay 18%.
How many goals are expected in Ordabasy vs Tobol Kostanay?
The model expects 2.63 goals (Ordabasy 1.76 · Tobol Kostanay 0.86), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Ordabasy vs Tobol Kostanay?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.