Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 25/07, 15:00

Prediction: FK Ulytau vs Irtysh Pavlodar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.07Total

FK Ulytau1.12

Irtysh Pavlodar0.95

1X2

39% 31% 30%

FK Ulytau Draw Irtysh Pavlodar

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Ulytau 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWLDWDLLWD

Irtysh Pavlodar 0-5-5 (W-D-L)

LLDDDLDLDL

Head-to-head

FK Ulytau 0–1–0 Irtysh Pavlodar (1 last)

Irtysh Pavlodar1-1FK Ulytau

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Ulytau 1502 · Irtysh Pavlodar 1439

	FK Ulytau	Draw	Irtysh Pavlodar
Our model	38%	33%	29%
Market	40%	30%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Ulytau (rating 1502 vs 1439).
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Ulytau	Irtysh Pavlodar
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.3	0.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4	1.8 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.00

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 1.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.25▲	Bet365 2.25
X	3.10 → 3.00▼	Bet365 3.00
2	3.30 → 2.90▼	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
09:05 +5’	2.00	3.10	3.30
10:01 +9’	2.25▲	3.00▼	2.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Ulytau 0–1–0 Irtysh Pavlodar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/05/26 Kazakhstan Premier League	Irtysh Pavlodar	1-1 HT 0-1	FK Ulytau

Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ordabasy	18	13	4	1	33	13	43
2	Kairat Almaty	19	12	6	1	37	13	42
3	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	18	8	6	4	24	24	30
4	FC Astana	17	8	5	4	25	19	29
5	FK Aktobe	18	8	4	6	26	20	28
6	FK Ulytau	18	7	6	5	15	16	27
7	FC Elimai Semey	17	7	5	5	25	22	26
8	FK Zhenys	18	5	7	6	15	20	22
9	Tobol Kostanay	18	5	4	9	20	26	19
10	Kaisar Kyzylorda	19	3	10	6	14	21	19
11	FK Atyrau	17	3	9	5	13	16	18
12	Zhetysu	18	4	6	8	21	27	18
13	FK Kaspyi Aktau	18	5	3	10	16	23	18
14	FK Kyzylzhar	18	4	4	10	18	26	16
15	FC Altai Semey	18	3	7	8	14	22	16
16	Irtysh Pavlodar	17	1	8	8	14	22	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Ulytau	Irtysh Pavlodar
FK Zhenys	1-1 D	0-1 L
Kaisar Kyzylorda	1-0 W	0-0 D
FC Astana	0-3 L	0-2 L
FK Kaspyi Aktau	1-0 W	2-2 D
Kairat Almaty	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK Ulytau (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Ulytau

DWLDWDLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
12/07	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
05/07	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
28/06	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-1	8	1	L
20/06	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
14/06	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	2-1	0	3	W
27/05	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
22/05	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
16/05	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	10	W
10/05	Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-1	8	7	D

Irtysh Pavlodar

LLDDDLDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
05/07	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
28/06	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
20/06	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
14/06	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	0-2	4	2	L
27/05	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
22/05	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	2-2	11	4	D
16/05	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-2	7	5	D
09/05	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
02/05	Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-1	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Ulytau vs Irtysh Pavlodar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Ulytau win (39%). Probabilities: FK Ulytau 39%, draw 31%, Irtysh Pavlodar 30%.

How many goals are expected in FK Ulytau vs Irtysh Pavlodar?

The model expects 2.07 goals (FK Ulytau 1.12 · Irtysh Pavlodar 0.95), with a 59% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Ulytau vs Irtysh Pavlodar?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.