Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 01/08, 14:00
Prediction: Irtysh Pavlodar vs FK Kaspyi Aktau
Team pages: Irtysh Pavlodar · FK Kaspyi Aktau
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.46Total
Irtysh Pavlodar1.3
FK Kaspyi Aktau1.16
1X2
Irtysh Pavlodar
Draw
FK Kaspyi Aktau
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Irtysh Pavlodar
1-5-4 (W-D-L)
FK Kaspyi Aktau
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Irtysh Pavlodar
0–1–2
FK Kaspyi Aktau
(3 last)
- FK Kaspyi Aktau2-2Irtysh Pavlodar
- FK Kaspyi Aktau2-0Irtysh Pavlodar
- Irtysh Pavlodar0-2FK Kaspyi Aktau
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Irtysh Pavlodar 1463 · FK Kaspyi Aktau 1519
| Irtysh Pavlodar | Draw | FK Kaspyi Aktau | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 30% | 32% |
| Market | 39% | 28% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Kaspyi Aktau (rating 1463 vs 1519).
- H2H favours FK Kaspyi Aktau: 2-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Irtysh Pavlodar | FK Kaspyi Aktau | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 5 | 3 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.2 | 5.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Irtysh Pavlodar 0–1–2 FK Kaspyi Aktau
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05/26 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Irtysh Pavlodar |
| 12/09/25 Kazakhstan Division 1 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Irtysh Pavlodar |
| 13/06/25 Kazakhstan Division 1 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 0-2 HT 0-1 | FK Kaspyi Aktau |
Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kairat Almaty | 20 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 39 | 14 | 45 |
| 2 | Ordabasy | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 34 | 15 | 43 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 32 |
| 4 | FK Aktobe | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 21 | 31 |
| 5 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 25 | 26 | 30 |
| 6 | FC Elimai Semey | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 26 | 23 | 27 |
| 7 | FK Ulytau | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 18 | 27 |
| 8 | Tobol Kostanay | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 26 | 22 |
| 9 | FK Zhenys | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 23 | 22 |
| 10 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 19 | 25 | 21 |
| 11 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 20 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 22 | 20 |
| 12 | FK Kyzylzhar | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 27 | 19 |
| 13 | FK Atyrau | 18 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 18 |
| 14 | Zhetysu | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 22 | 29 | 18 |
| 15 | FC Altai Semey | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 26 | 16 |
| 16 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 18 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 23 | 14 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Irtysh Pavlodar | FK Kaspyi Aktau |
|---|---|---|
| FK Ulytau | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| FK Zhenys | 0-1 L | 3-2 W |
| Kaisar Kyzylorda | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Irtysh Pavlodar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 11/07 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 05/07 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 28/06 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 14/06 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 27/05 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 22/05 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
FK Kaspyi Aktau
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 10 | W |
| 18/07 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 11/07 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 27/06 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 14/06 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 28/05 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 22/05 | Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 10 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Irtysh Pavlodar vs FK Kaspyi Aktau?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Irtysh Pavlodar win (39%). Probabilities: Irtysh Pavlodar 39%, draw 29%, FK Kaspyi Aktau 32%.
How many goals are expected in Irtysh Pavlodar vs FK Kaspyi Aktau?
The model expects 2.46 goals (Irtysh Pavlodar 1.3 · FK Kaspyi Aktau 1.16), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Irtysh Pavlodar vs FK Kaspyi Aktau?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.