Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 08/08, 17:00

Prediction: FK Kaspyi Aktau vs FK Ulytau

Team pages: FK Kaspyi Aktau · FK Ulytau

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

FK Kaspyi Aktau1.43

FK Ulytau0.93

1X2

48% 28% 24%

FK Kaspyi Aktau Draw FK Ulytau

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Kaspyi Aktau 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLLLWWWDWL

FK Ulytau 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDWDLLWDLL

Head-to-head

FK Kaspyi Aktau 1–1–1 FK Ulytau (3 last)

FK Ulytau1-0FK Kaspyi Aktau
FK Ulytau0-0FK Kaspyi Aktau
FK Kaspyi Aktau3-2FK Ulytau

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Kaspyi Aktau 1502 · FK Ulytau 1471

	FK Kaspyi Aktau	Draw	FK Ulytau
Our model	47%	29%	23%
Market	49%	27%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Kaspyi Aktau	FK Ulytau
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.6	0.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 4.4	2.1 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.4	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.30

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 23:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 1.85▼	Pinn 2.07 ★
X	3.20 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30
2	3.10 → 3.70▲	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 13.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:36 +14’	2.10	3.20	3.10
21:22 +3’	2.05▼	3.20	3.30▲
23:45 +2’	1.85▼	3.30▲	3.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:22 +2’	1.94	2.83	3.78
23:47	2.07▲	2.80▼	3.44▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Kaspyi Aktau 1–1–1 FK Ulytau

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Ulytau	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Kaspyi Aktau
26/07/24 Kazakhstan Division 1	FK Ulytau	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Kaspyi Aktau
25/04/24 Kazakhstan Division 1	FK Kaspyi Aktau	3-2 HT 1-1	FK Ulytau

Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ordabasy	20	14	4	2	36	15	46
2	Kairat Almaty	20	13	6	1	39	14	45
3	FC Astana	19	10	5	4	31	20	35
4	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	20	9	6	5	29	27	33
5	FK Aktobe	20	9	4	7	29	24	31
6	FC Elimai Semey	19	7	7	5	26	23	28
7	FK Ulytau	20	7	6	7	16	20	27
8	FK Zhenys	20	5	8	7	17	23	23
9	Tobol Kostanay	20	6	4	10	21	28	22
10	FK Kyzylzhar	20	6	4	10	23	28	22
11	FK Kaspyi Aktau	20	6	3	11	21	28	21
12	Kaisar Kyzylorda	20	3	11	6	15	22	20
13	FK Atyrau	19	3	10	6	14	18	19
14	Zhetysu	20	4	7	9	23	30	19
15	Irtysh Pavlodar	19	3	8	8	19	25	17
16	FC Altai Semey	20	3	7	10	16	30	16

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Kaspyi Aktau	FK Ulytau
Irtysh Pavlodar	2-3 L	1-2 L
FK Zhenys	3-2 W	1-1 D
Kaisar Kyzylorda	1-1 D	1-0 W
Ordabasy	3-2 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Kaspyi Aktau (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Kaspyi Aktau

DLLLWWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-3	1	9	L
26/07	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	3-2	4	10	W
18/07	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-1	3	9	D
11/07	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	3-2	2	3	W
05/07	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	2-1	8	5	W
27/06	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	2-0	5	1	W
20/06	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
14/06	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	1-2	6	6	L
28/05	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
22/05	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-2	6	4	D

FK Ulytau

LDWDLLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
25/07	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	1-2	7	3	L
18/07	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
12/07	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
05/07	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
28/06	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-1	8	1	L
20/06	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
14/06	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	2-1	0	3	W
27/05	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
22/05	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-3	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Kaspyi Aktau vs FK Ulytau?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Kaspyi Aktau win (48%). Probabilities: FK Kaspyi Aktau 48%, draw 28%, FK Ulytau 24%.

How many goals are expected in FK Kaspyi Aktau vs FK Ulytau?

The model expects 2.36 goals (FK Kaspyi Aktau 1.43 · FK Ulytau 0.93), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Kaspyi Aktau vs FK Ulytau?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.