Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 09/08, 16:00

Prediction: FC Elimai Semey vs Irtysh Pavlodar

Team pages: FC Elimai Semey · Irtysh Pavlodar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

FC Elimai Semey1.65

Irtysh Pavlodar1

1X2

52% 26% 22%

FC Elimai Semey Draw Irtysh Pavlodar

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Elimai Semey 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWWDDLDD

Irtysh Pavlodar 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDDLDLDLWW

Head-to-head

FC Elimai Semey 0–1–0 Irtysh Pavlodar (1 last)

Irtysh Pavlodar2-2FC Elimai Semey

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Elimai Semey 1499 · Irtysh Pavlodar 1489

	FC Elimai Semey	Draw	Irtysh Pavlodar
Our model	51%	27%	22%
Market	52%	26%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Elimai Semey	Irtysh Pavlodar
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 7	2.8 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.2	4.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.50

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Pinn 1.73
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.54 ★
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:20 +6’	1.73	3.50	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:05 +2’	1.73	3.54	3.98

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Elimai Semey 0–1–0 Irtysh Pavlodar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Kazakhstan Premier League	Irtysh Pavlodar	2-2 HT 1-0	FC Elimai Semey

Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ordabasy	20	14	4	2	36	15	46
2	Kairat Almaty	20	13	6	1	39	14	45
3	FC Astana	19	10	5	4	31	20	35
4	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	20	9	6	5	29	27	33
5	FK Aktobe	20	9	4	7	29	24	31
6	FC Elimai Semey	19	7	7	5	26	23	28
7	FK Ulytau	20	7	6	7	16	20	27
8	FK Zhenys	20	5	8	7	17	23	23
9	Tobol Kostanay	20	6	4	10	21	28	22
10	FK Kyzylzhar	20	6	4	10	23	28	22
11	FK Kaspyi Aktau	20	6	3	11	21	28	21
12	Kaisar Kyzylorda	20	3	11	6	15	22	20
13	FK Atyrau	19	3	10	6	14	18	19
14	Zhetysu	20	4	7	9	23	30	19
15	Irtysh Pavlodar	19	3	8	8	19	25	17
16	FC Altai Semey	20	3	7	10	16	30	16

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Elimai Semey	Irtysh Pavlodar
FK Zhenys	0-0 D	0-1 L
Kaisar Kyzylorda	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Elimai Semey (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Elimai Semey

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
26/07	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
19/07	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	1-3	6	7	L
16/07	Alashkert FC UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-1	1-1	8	6	D
09/07	Alashkert FC UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
04/07	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-0	12	8	W
27/06	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	2-0	7	4	W
21/06	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	1-2	6	6	L
14/06	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-3	8	6	L
28/05	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	3-2	9	3	W

Irtysh Pavlodar

DDDLDLDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	3-2	12	9	W
25/07	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	2-1	5	3	W
11/07	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
05/07	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
28/06	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
20/06	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
14/06	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	0-2	4	2	L
27/05	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
22/05	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	2-2	11	4	D
16/05	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-2	7	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Elimai Semey vs Irtysh Pavlodar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Elimai Semey win (52%). Probabilities: FC Elimai Semey 52%, draw 26%, Irtysh Pavlodar 22%.

How many goals are expected in FC Elimai Semey vs Irtysh Pavlodar?

The model expects 2.65 goals (FC Elimai Semey 1.65 · Irtysh Pavlodar 1), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Elimai Semey vs Irtysh Pavlodar?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.