Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 30/08, 17:00
Prediction: FK Atyrau vs FC Astana
Team pages: FK Atyrau · FC Astana
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.47Total
FK Atyrau0.78
FC Astana1.69
1X2
FK Atyrau
Draw
FC Astana
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
0-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
FK Atyrau
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
FC Astana
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FK Atyrau
1–5
FC Astana
(6 last)
- FC Astana2-1FK Atyrau
- FK Atyrau0-2FC Astana
- FK Atyrau0-2FC Astana
- FC Astana2-1FK Atyrau
- FC Astana3-2FK Atyrau
- FK Atyrau1-0FC Astana
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Atyrau 1434 · FC Astana 1561
| FK Atyrau | Draw | FC Astana | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 16% | 26% | 58% |
| Market | 17% | 24% | 59% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Astana (rating 1434 vs 1561).
- H2H favours FC Astana: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Atyrau | FC Astana | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.5 | 1.8 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1 | 1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4 | 2.9 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.1 | 3.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Atyrau 1–0–5 FC Astana
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 Kazakhstan Premier League | FC Astana | 2-1 HT 2-0 | FK Atyrau |
| 24/05/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Atyrau | 0-2 HT 0-1 | FC Astana |
| 30/04/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Atyrau | 0-2 HT 0-1 | FC Astana |
| 26/04/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | FC Astana | 2-1 HT 2-0 | FK Atyrau |
| 30/10/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | FC Astana | 3-2 HT 0-1 | FK Atyrau |
| 18/05/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Atyrau | 1-0 HT 1-0 | FC Astana |
Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 43 | 16 | 52 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 42 | 15 | 48 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 39 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 32 | 29 | 36 |
| 5 | FK Aktobe | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 26 | 35 |
| 6 | FC Elimai Semey | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 31 | 26 | 32 |
| 7 | Tobol Kostanay | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 26 | 30 | 28 |
| 8 | FK Ulytau | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 24 | 28 |
| 9 | FK Zhenys | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 21 | 24 | 26 |
| 10 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 24 | 31 | 23 |
| 11 | FK Kyzylzhar | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 24 | 32 | 23 |
| 12 | FK Atyrau | 21 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 15 | 21 | 20 |
| 13 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 22 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 27 | 20 |
| 14 | FC Altai Semey | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 20 | 33 | 19 |
| 15 | Zhetysu | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 24 | 38 | 19 |
| 16 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 17 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FK Atyrau | FC Astana |
|---|---|---|
| Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| FK Aktobe | 1-1 D | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Astana (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Atyrau
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 09/08 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 01/08 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 9 | D |
| 26/07 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 18/07 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 05/07 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 27/06 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 21/06 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 13/06 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 28/05 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
FC Astana
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 09/08 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 02/08 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 12/07 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 03/07 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 28/06 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 9 | D |
| 21/06 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 14/06 | Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 27/05 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FK Atyrau vs FC Astana?
According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Astana win (59%). Probabilities: FK Atyrau 16%, draw 25%, FC Astana 59%.
How many goals are expected in FK Atyrau vs FC Astana?
The model expects 2.47 goals (FK Atyrau 0.78 · FC Astana 1.69), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in FK Atyrau vs FC Astana?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.