Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 06/09, 16:00

Prediction: Tobol Kostanay vs FK Ulytau

Team pages: Tobol Kostanay · FK Ulytau

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Tobol Kostanay1.4

FK Ulytau1.01

1X2

46% 28% 27%

Tobol Kostanay Draw FK Ulytau

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Tobol Kostanay 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWDWLWWL

FK Ulytau 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWDLLDLW

Head-to-head

Tobol Kostanay 1–1–1 FK Ulytau (3 last)

FK Ulytau2-1Tobol Kostanay
FK Ulytau2-2Tobol Kostanay
Tobol Kostanay2-0FK Ulytau

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tobol Kostanay 1487 · FK Ulytau 1483

	Tobol Kostanay	Draw	FK Ulytau
Our model	45%	29%	26%
Market	46%	26%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tobol Kostanay	FK Ulytau
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.1	0.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.2	2.2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.5	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.40

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
13:56 +50’	1.95	3.40	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tobol Kostanay 1–1–1 FK Ulytau

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Ulytau	2-1 HT 1-1	Tobol Kostanay
26/10/25 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Ulytau	2-2 HT 1-1	Tobol Kostanay
01/03/25 Kazakhstan Premier League	Tobol Kostanay	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Ulytau

Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ordabasy	23	17	4	2	46	16	55
2	Kairat Almaty	22	15	6	1	44	15	51
3	FC Astana	22	12	6	4	37	24	42
4	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	23	11	6	6	35	31	39
5	FK Aktobe	23	10	5	8	33	28	35
6	FC Elimai Semey	22	8	8	6	31	28	32
7	FK Ulytau	23	8	7	8	21	24	31
8	FK Zhenys	22	7	8	7	22	24	29
9	Tobol Kostanay	23	8	4	11	26	31	28
10	FK Kaspyi Aktau	23	7	5	11	25	31	26
11	FK Kyzylzhar	23	6	5	12	24	35	23
12	FK Atyrau	22	3	11	8	17	24	20
13	Irtysh Pavlodar	22	4	8	10	22	31	20
14	Kaisar Kyzylorda	23	3	11	9	20	30	20
15	FC Altai Semey	23	4	7	12	20	34	19
16	Zhetysu	23	4	7	12	24	41	19

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tobol Kostanay	FK Ulytau
FK Kaspyi Aktau	0-1 L	1-1 D
Kaisar Kyzylorda	3-2 W	1-0 W
Irtysh Pavlodar	2-0 W	1-2 L
Ordabasy	0-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Ulytau (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tobol Kostanay

LWLWDWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
25/08	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	3-2	5	5	W
16/08	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-0	4	8	W
02/08	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
26/07	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
18/07	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
12/07	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	3-1	5	1	W
04/07	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
28/06	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
21/06	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-2	5	4	L

FK Ulytau

DLLWDLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	3-0	3	7	W
15/08	Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-3	2	5	L
08/08	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
02/08	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
25/07	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	1-2	7	3	L
18/07	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
12/07	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
05/07	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
28/06	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-1	8	1	L
20/06	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tobol Kostanay vs FK Ulytau?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tobol Kostanay win (46%). Probabilities: Tobol Kostanay 46%, draw 28%, FK Ulytau 27%.

How many goals are expected in Tobol Kostanay vs FK Ulytau?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Tobol Kostanay 1.4 · FK Ulytau 1.01), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Tobol Kostanay vs FK Ulytau?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.