Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 06/09, 15:00
Prediction: FC Astana vs FC Elimai Semey
Team pages: FC Astana · FC Elimai Semey
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.16Total
FC Astana1.87
FC Elimai Semey1.28
1X2
FC Astana
Draw
FC Elimai Semey
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
FC Astana
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
FC Elimai Semey
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Astana
2–3–1
FC Elimai Semey
(6 last)
- FC Elimai Semey2-2FC Astana
- FC Astana3-3FC Elimai Semey
- FC Elimai Semey0-2FC Astana
- FC Elimai Semey0-3FC Astana
- FC Elimai Semey0-0FC Astana
- FC Astana0-1FC Elimai Semey
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Astana 1564 · FC Elimai Semey 1486
| FC Astana | Draw | FC Elimai Semey | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Market | 50% | 25% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Astana (rating 1564 vs 1486).
- H2H favours FC Astana: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Astana | FC Elimai Semey | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.1 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/20/10% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.8 | 2.7 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.1 | 6.4 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Astana 2–3–1 FC Elimai Semey
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 Kazakhstan Premier League | FC Elimai Semey | 2-2 HT 2-1 | FC Astana |
| 14/09/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | FC Astana | 3-3 HT 2-1 | FC Elimai Semey |
| 30/05/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | FC Elimai Semey | 0-2 HT 0-1 | FC Astana |
| 20/10/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | FC Elimai Semey | 0-3 HT 0-2 | FC Astana |
| 11/08/24 Kazakhstan League Cup | FC Elimai Semey | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FC Astana |
| 31/03/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | FC Astana | 0-1 HT 0-0 | FC Elimai Semey |
Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 23 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 46 | 16 | 55 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 22 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 44 | 15 | 51 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 22 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 37 | 24 | 42 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 35 | 31 | 39 |
| 5 | FK Aktobe | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 33 | 28 | 35 |
| 6 | FC Elimai Semey | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 31 | 28 | 32 |
| 7 | FK Ulytau | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 24 | 31 |
| 8 | FK Zhenys | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 22 | 24 | 29 |
| 9 | Tobol Kostanay | 23 | 8 | 4 | 11 | 26 | 31 | 28 |
| 10 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 25 | 31 | 26 |
| 11 | FK Kyzylzhar | 23 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 24 | 35 | 23 |
| 12 | FK Atyrau | 22 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 17 | 24 | 20 |
| 13 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 22 | 31 | 20 |
| 14 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 23 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 20 | 30 | 20 |
| 15 | FC Altai Semey | 23 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 34 | 19 |
| 16 | Zhetysu | 23 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 24 | 41 | 19 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Astana | FC Elimai Semey |
|---|---|---|
| FK Atyrau | 3-2 W | 1-2 L |
| FK Kyzylzhar | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| FK Zhenys | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Irtysh Pavlodar | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 0 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Astana (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Astana
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 16/08 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 09/08 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 02/08 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 12/07 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 03/07 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 28/06 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 9 | D |
| 21/06 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 14/06 | Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
FC Elimai Semey
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 10 | L |
| 16/08 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 09/08 | Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 02/08 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 26/07 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 19/07 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 04/07 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 8 | W |
| 27/06 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 21/06 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 14/06 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Astana vs FC Elimai Semey?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Astana win (50%). Probabilities: FC Astana 50%, draw 25%, FC Elimai Semey 25%.
How many goals are expected in FC Astana vs FC Elimai Semey?
The model expects 3.16 goals (FC Astana 1.87 · FC Elimai Semey 1.28), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Astana vs FC Elimai Semey?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.