Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 05/09, 15:00

Prediction: FK Kyzylzhar vs FK Atyrau

Team pages: FK Kyzylzhar · FK Atyrau

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

FK Kyzylzhar1.42

FK Atyrau1.06

1X2

44% 28% 27%

FK Kyzylzhar Draw FK Atyrau

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Kyzylzhar 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLDWWDDL

FK Atyrau 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLDDLL

Head-to-head

FK Kyzylzhar 3–1–2 FK Atyrau (6 last)

FK Atyrau0-1FK Kyzylzhar
FK Kyzylzhar0-1FK Atyrau
FK Atyrau1-2FK Kyzylzhar
FK Kyzylzhar3-2FK Atyrau
FK Atyrau2-0FK Kyzylzhar
FK Atyrau0-0FK Kyzylzhar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Kyzylzhar 1480 · FK Atyrau 1420

	FK Kyzylzhar	Draw	FK Atyrau
Our model	44%	29%	27%
Market	45%	28%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Kyzylzhar (rating 1480 vs 1420).
H2H favours FK Kyzylzhar: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Kyzylzhar	FK Atyrau
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.9	0.9 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.5 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.8	2.6 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.5	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.20

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.00▼	Pinn 2.04
X	3.10 → 3.20▲	Bet365 3.20
2	3.10 → 3.25▲	Pinn 3.40 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:56 +2’	2.10	3.10	3.10
19:43 +5’	2.00▼	3.20▲	3.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:47	2.04	3.12	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Kyzylzhar 3–1–2 FK Atyrau

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Atyrau	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Kyzylzhar
20/07/25 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Kyzylzhar	0-1 HT 0-1	FK Atyrau
19/04/25 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Atyrau	1-2 HT 0-1	FK Kyzylzhar
20/10/24 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Kyzylzhar	3-2 HT 1-1	FK Atyrau
27/04/24 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Atyrau	2-0 HT 0-0	FK Kyzylzhar
16/09/23 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Atyrau	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Kyzylzhar

Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ordabasy	23	17	4	2	46	16	55
2	Kairat Almaty	22	15	6	1	44	15	51
3	FC Astana	22	12	6	4	37	24	42
4	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	23	11	6	6	35	31	39
5	FK Aktobe	23	10	5	8	33	28	35
6	FC Elimai Semey	22	8	8	6	31	28	32
7	FK Ulytau	23	8	7	8	21	24	31
8	FK Zhenys	22	7	8	7	22	24	29
9	Tobol Kostanay	23	8	4	11	26	31	28
10	FK Kaspyi Aktau	23	7	5	11	25	31	26
11	FK Kyzylzhar	23	6	5	12	24	35	23
12	FK Atyrau	22	3	11	8	17	24	20
13	Irtysh Pavlodar	22	4	8	10	22	31	20
14	Kaisar Kyzylorda	23	3	11	9	20	30	20
15	FC Altai Semey	23	4	7	12	20	34	19
16	Zhetysu	23	4	7	12	24	41	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Kyzylzhar	FK Atyrau
FC Astana	1-1 D	2-3 L
FK Aktobe	3-1 W	1-1 D
Zhetysu	2-1 W	1-1 D
Tobol Kostanay	1-1 D	0-1 L
FC Elimai Semey	0-1 L	2-1 W
Kairat Almaty	2-4 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK Kyzylzhar (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Kyzylzhar

LLLLDWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-3	2	0	L
16/08	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
08/08	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-2	6	2	D
01/08	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	3-1	4	7	W
25/07	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	2-1	4	11	W
18/07	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
04/07	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
27/06	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
21/06	Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League	2-2	2-4	3	11	L
17/06	Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-3	1	4	L

FK Atyrau

DWLLLLDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	2-3	7	4	L
16/08	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-2	8	3	L
09/08	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
01/08	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-1	6	9	D
26/07	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
18/07	Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League	0-3	1-3	1	2	L
05/07	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
27/06	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	0-2	8	1	L
21/06	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	2-1	–	–	W
13/06	Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-1	2	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Kyzylzhar vs FK Atyrau?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Kyzylzhar win (44%). Probabilities: FK Kyzylzhar 44%, draw 28%, FK Atyrau 27%.

How many goals are expected in FK Kyzylzhar vs FK Atyrau?

The model expects 2.48 goals (FK Kyzylzhar 1.42 · FK Atyrau 1.06), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Kyzylzhar vs FK Atyrau?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.