Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 30/08, 14:00
Prediction: FK Kaspyi Aktau vs Tobol Kostanay
Team pages: FK Kaspyi Aktau · Tobol Kostanay
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.82Total
FK Kaspyi Aktau1.29
Tobol Kostanay1.53
1X2
FK Kaspyi Aktau
Draw
Tobol Kostanay
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
FK Kaspyi Aktau
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Tobol Kostanay
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FK Kaspyi Aktau
0–2–4
Tobol Kostanay
(6 last)
- Tobol Kostanay2-1FK Kaspyi Aktau
- Tobol Kostanay1-1FK Kaspyi Aktau
- FK Kaspyi Aktau0-1Tobol Kostanay
- Tobol Kostanay1-0FK Kaspyi Aktau
- FK Kaspyi Aktau0-0Tobol Kostanay
- Tobol Kostanay2-1FK Kaspyi Aktau
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Kaspyi Aktau 1496 · Tobol Kostanay 1518
| FK Kaspyi Aktau | Draw | Tobol Kostanay | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 27% | 42% |
| Market | 32% | 26% | 42% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Tobol Kostanay: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Kaspyi Aktau | Tobol Kostanay | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.6 | 1.6 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.1 | 1.9 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.4 | 4.1 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Kaspyi Aktau 0–2–4 Tobol Kostanay
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 Kazakhstan Premier League | Tobol Kostanay | 2-1 HT 2-1 | FK Kaspyi Aktau |
| 21/10/23 Kazakhstan Premier League | Tobol Kostanay | 1-1 HT 1-0 | FK Kaspyi Aktau |
| 10/03/23 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Tobol Kostanay |
| 19/06/22 Kazakhstan Premier League | Tobol Kostanay | 1-0 HT 1-0 | FK Kaspyi Aktau |
| 11/03/22 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Tobol Kostanay |
| 12/09/21 Kazakhstan Premier League | Tobol Kostanay | 2-1 HT 1-1 | FK Kaspyi Aktau |
Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 43 | 16 | 52 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 42 | 15 | 48 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 39 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 32 | 29 | 36 |
| 5 | FK Aktobe | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 26 | 35 |
| 6 | FC Elimai Semey | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 31 | 26 | 32 |
| 7 | Tobol Kostanay | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 26 | 30 | 28 |
| 8 | FK Ulytau | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 24 | 28 |
| 9 | FK Zhenys | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 21 | 24 | 26 |
| 10 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 24 | 31 | 23 |
| 11 | FK Kyzylzhar | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 24 | 32 | 23 |
| 12 | FK Atyrau | 21 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 15 | 21 | 20 |
| 13 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 22 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 27 | 20 |
| 14 | FC Altai Semey | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 20 | 33 | 19 |
| 15 | Zhetysu | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 24 | 38 | 19 |
| 16 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 17 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FK Kaspyi Aktau | Tobol Kostanay |
|---|---|---|
| Irtysh Pavlodar | 2-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Kaisar Kyzylorda | 1-1 D | 3-2 W |
| Ordabasy | 3-2 W | 0-2 L |
| FK Atyrau | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 3 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Tobol Kostanay (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Kaspyi Aktau
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 08/08 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 01/08 | Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 1 | 9 | L |
| 26/07 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 10 | W |
| 18/07 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 11/07 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 27/06 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 14/06 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
Tobol Kostanay
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 16/08 | Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 02/08 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 26/07 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 18/07 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 12/07 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 28/06 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FK Kaspyi Aktau vs Tobol Kostanay?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Tobol Kostanay win (42%). Probabilities: FK Kaspyi Aktau 31%, draw 27%, Tobol Kostanay 42%.
How many goals are expected in FK Kaspyi Aktau vs Tobol Kostanay?
The model expects 2.82 goals (FK Kaspyi Aktau 1.29 · Tobol Kostanay 1.53), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in FK Kaspyi Aktau vs Tobol Kostanay?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.