Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 05/09, 15:00
Prediction: Zhetysu vs Irtysh Pavlodar
Team pages: Zhetysu · Irtysh Pavlodar
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.56Total
Zhetysu1.2
Irtysh Pavlodar1.35
1X2
Zhetysu
Draw
Irtysh Pavlodar
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Zhetysu
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Irtysh Pavlodar
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Zhetysu
6–0
Irtysh Pavlodar
(6 last)
- Irtysh Pavlodar1-2Zhetysu
- Zhetysu2-1Irtysh Pavlodar
- Zhetysu4-0Irtysh Pavlodar
- Irtysh Pavlodar0-3Zhetysu
- Zhetysu2-0Irtysh Pavlodar
- Irtysh Pavlodar0-2Zhetysu
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Zhetysu 1426 · Irtysh Pavlodar 1466
| Zhetysu | Draw | Irtysh Pavlodar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| Market | 32% | 28% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Irtysh Pavlodar (rating 1426 vs 1466).
- H2H favours Zhetysu: 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 11.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Zhetysu | Irtysh Pavlodar | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 2.2 | 0.9 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.8 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/10/70% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.4 | 2.3 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.5 / 0.4 | 5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Zhetysu 6–0–0 Irtysh Pavlodar
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 Kazakhstan Premier League | Irtysh Pavlodar | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Zhetysu |
| 05/10/19 Kazakhstan Premier League | Zhetysu | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Irtysh Pavlodar |
| 13/07/19 Kazakhstan Premier League | Zhetysu | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Irtysh Pavlodar |
| 01/05/19 Kazakhstan Premier League | Irtysh Pavlodar | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Zhetysu |
| 19/08/18 Kazakhstan Premier League | Zhetysu | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Irtysh Pavlodar |
| 01/07/18 Kazakhstan Premier League | Irtysh Pavlodar | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Zhetysu |
Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 23 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 46 | 16 | 55 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 22 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 44 | 15 | 51 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 22 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 37 | 24 | 42 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 35 | 31 | 39 |
| 5 | FK Aktobe | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 33 | 28 | 35 |
| 6 | FC Elimai Semey | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 31 | 28 | 32 |
| 7 | FK Ulytau | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 24 | 31 |
| 8 | FK Zhenys | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 22 | 24 | 29 |
| 9 | Tobol Kostanay | 23 | 8 | 4 | 11 | 26 | 31 | 28 |
| 10 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 25 | 31 | 26 |
| 11 | FK Kyzylzhar | 23 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 24 | 35 | 23 |
| 12 | FK Atyrau | 22 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 17 | 24 | 20 |
| 13 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 22 | 31 | 20 |
| 14 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 23 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 20 | 30 | 20 |
| 15 | FC Altai Semey | 23 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 34 | 19 |
| 16 | Zhetysu | 23 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 24 | 41 | 19 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Zhetysu | Irtysh Pavlodar |
|---|---|---|
| FK Ulytau | 0-3 L | 2-1 W |
| FK Zhenys | 1-4 L | 0-1 L |
| FK Aktobe | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 3 L | 2 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Irtysh Pavlodar (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Zhetysu
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 15/08 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 08/08 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-4 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 01/08 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 9 | D |
| 25/07 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 11 | L |
| 18/07 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 11/07 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 05/07 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 27/06 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 20/06 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 3-3 | 6 | 6 | D |
Irtysh Pavlodar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 16/08 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 09/08 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 01/08 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 12 | 9 | W |
| 25/07 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 11/07 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 05/07 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 28/06 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 14/06 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Zhetysu vs Irtysh Pavlodar?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Irtysh Pavlodar win (39%). Probabilities: Zhetysu 32%, draw 28%, Irtysh Pavlodar 39%.
How many goals are expected in Zhetysu vs Irtysh Pavlodar?
The model expects 2.56 goals (Zhetysu 1.2 · Irtysh Pavlodar 1.35), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Zhetysu vs Irtysh Pavlodar?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.