Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 30/08, 14:00
Prediction: Irtysh Pavlodar vs FK Aktobe
Team pages: Irtysh Pavlodar · FK Aktobe
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.47Total
Irtysh Pavlodar1.1
FK Aktobe1.37
1X2
Irtysh Pavlodar
Draw
FK Aktobe
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Irtysh Pavlodar
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
FK Aktobe
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Irtysh Pavlodar
0–2–4
FK Aktobe
(6 last)
- FK Aktobe1-0Irtysh Pavlodar
- FK Aktobe1-1Irtysh Pavlodar
- FK Aktobe2-1Irtysh Pavlodar
- Irtysh Pavlodar0-1FK Aktobe
- FK Aktobe2-2Irtysh Pavlodar
- FK Aktobe2-0Irtysh Pavlodar
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Irtysh Pavlodar 1452 · FK Aktobe 1545
| Irtysh Pavlodar | Draw | FK Aktobe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 29% | 42% |
| Market | 30% | 28% | 42% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Aktobe (rating 1452 vs 1545).
- H2H favours FK Aktobe: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Irtysh Pavlodar | FK Aktobe | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.4 | 1.8 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.5 | 2.8 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.3 | 5.3 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Irtysh Pavlodar 0–2–4 FK Aktobe
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Aktobe | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Irtysh Pavlodar |
| 25/08/19 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Aktobe | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Irtysh Pavlodar |
| 30/06/19 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Aktobe | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Irtysh Pavlodar |
| 20/04/19 Kazakhstan Premier League | Irtysh Pavlodar | 0-1 HT 0-1 | FK Aktobe |
| 10/04/19 Kazakhstan Cup | FK Aktobe | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Irtysh Pavlodar |
| 26/09/18 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Aktobe | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Irtysh Pavlodar |
Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 43 | 16 | 52 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 42 | 15 | 48 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 39 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 32 | 29 | 36 |
| 5 | FK Aktobe | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 26 | 35 |
| 6 | FC Elimai Semey | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 31 | 26 | 32 |
| 7 | Tobol Kostanay | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 26 | 30 | 28 |
| 8 | FK Ulytau | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 24 | 28 |
| 9 | FK Zhenys | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 21 | 24 | 26 |
| 10 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 24 | 31 | 23 |
| 11 | FK Kyzylzhar | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 24 | 32 | 23 |
| 12 | FK Atyrau | 21 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 15 | 21 | 20 |
| 13 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 22 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 27 | 20 |
| 14 | FC Altai Semey | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 20 | 33 | 19 |
| 15 | Zhetysu | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 24 | 38 | 19 |
| 16 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 17 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Irtysh Pavlodar | FK Aktobe |
|---|---|---|
| Kaisar Kyzylorda | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| FC Astana | 0-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: FK Aktobe (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Irtysh Pavlodar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 09/08 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 01/08 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 12 | 9 | W |
| 25/07 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 11/07 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 05/07 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 28/06 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 14/06 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 27/05 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
FK Aktobe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 01/08 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 25/07 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 19/07 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 4-2 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 12/07 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 05/07 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 7 | W |
| 27/06 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 21/06 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 14/06 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Irtysh Pavlodar vs FK Aktobe?
According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Aktobe win (42%). Probabilities: Irtysh Pavlodar 29%, draw 29%, FK Aktobe 42%.
How many goals are expected in Irtysh Pavlodar vs FK Aktobe?
The model expects 2.47 goals (Irtysh Pavlodar 1.1 · FK Aktobe 1.37), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Irtysh Pavlodar vs FK Aktobe?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.