Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 29/08, 15:00

Prediction: FK Zhenys vs FC Altai Semey

Team pages: FK Zhenys · FC Altai Semey

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

FK Zhenys1.71

FC Altai Semey1.1

1X2

51% 26% 23%

FK Zhenys Draw FC Altai Semey

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Zhenys 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLDDLWDLDW

FC Altai Semey 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLWWLLLDL

Head-to-head

FK Zhenys 0–1–0 FC Altai Semey (1 last)

FC Altai Semey0-0FK Zhenys

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Zhenys 1500 · FC Altai Semey 1432

	FK Zhenys	Draw	FC Altai Semey
Our model	51%	26%	23%
Market	51%	26%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Zhenys (rating 1500 vs 1432).
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Zhenys	FC Altai Semey
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1	1.3 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.3 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.7	2.1 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.5	4.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.40

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.75▼	Pinn 1.80
X	3.30 → 3.40▲	Bet365 3.40
2	3.40 → 3.80▲	Pinn 3.91 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.9% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:31 +6’	1.90	3.30	3.40
18:39 +10’	1.75▼	3.40▲	3.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:44 +5’	1.80	3.40	3.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Zhenys 0–1–0 FC Altai Semey

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Kazakhstan Premier League	FC Altai Semey	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Zhenys

Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ordabasy	22	16	4	2	43	16	52
2	Kairat Almaty	21	14	6	1	42	15	48
3	FC Astana	21	11	6	4	34	22	39
4	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	22	10	6	6	32	29	36
5	FK Aktobe	22	10	5	7	32	26	35
6	FC Elimai Semey	21	8	8	5	31	26	32
7	Tobol Kostanay	22	8	4	10	26	30	28
8	FK Ulytau	22	7	7	8	18	24	28
9	FK Zhenys	21	6	8	7	21	24	26
10	FK Kaspyi Aktau	22	6	5	11	24	31	23
11	FK Kyzylzhar	22	6	5	11	24	32	23
12	FK Atyrau	21	3	11	7	15	21	20
13	Kaisar Kyzylorda	22	3	11	8	18	27	20
14	FC Altai Semey	22	4	7	11	20	33	19
15	Zhetysu	22	4	7	11	24	38	19
16	Irtysh Pavlodar	21	3	8	10	20	30	17

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Zhenys	FC Altai Semey
Zhetysu	4-1 W	1-0 W
FC Astana	0-1 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Zhenys (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Zhenys

WLDDLWDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	4-1	5	6	W
02/08	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
26/07	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	2-3	9	10	L
18/07	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
11/07	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
03/07	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
28/06	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	2-2	4	9	D
20/06	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
14/06	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-2	4	3	L
28/05	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-0	5	6	W

FC Altai Semey

LDLWWLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	1-3	4	9	L
08/08	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	2-2	8	2	D
02/08	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-4	10	4	L
26/07	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	1-4	1	3	L
19/07	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	2-4	5	9	L
11/07	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
04/07	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
28/06	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	1-3	4	5	L
20/06	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	3-3	1	6	D
14/06	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-2	1	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Zhenys vs FC Altai Semey?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Zhenys win (51%). Probabilities: FK Zhenys 51%, draw 26%, FC Altai Semey 23%.

How many goals are expected in FK Zhenys vs FC Altai Semey?

The model expects 2.81 goals (FK Zhenys 1.71 · FC Altai Semey 1.1), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Zhenys vs FC Altai Semey?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.