Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 29/08, 17:00
Prediction: Ordabasy vs FK Kyzylzhar
Team pages: Ordabasy · FK Kyzylzhar
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3Total
Ordabasy2.17
FK Kyzylzhar0.83
1X2
Ordabasy
Draw
FK Kyzylzhar
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Ordabasy
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
FK Kyzylzhar
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ordabasy
2–4–0
FK Kyzylzhar
(6 last)
- FK Kyzylzhar1-2Ordabasy
- Ordabasy0-0FK Kyzylzhar
- FK Kyzylzhar0-0Ordabasy
- FK Kyzylzhar0-0Ordabasy
- Ordabasy0-0FK Kyzylzhar
- FK Kyzylzhar0-1Ordabasy
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ordabasy 1603 · FK Kyzylzhar 1461
| Ordabasy | Draw | FK Kyzylzhar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 21% | 12% |
| Market | 68% | 18% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
3 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ordabasy (rating 1603 vs 1461).
- H2H favours Ordabasy: 2-4-0.
- Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ordabasy | FK Kyzylzhar | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/20/10% | 10/90/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.1 | 1.8 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.1 | 5.4 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ordabasy 2–4–0 FK Kyzylzhar
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Kyzylzhar | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Ordabasy |
| 28/08/25 Kazakhstan Cup | Ordabasy | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FK Kyzylzhar |
| 05/07/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Kyzylzhar | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Ordabasy |
| 25/06/25 Kazakhstan Cup | FK Kyzylzhar | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Ordabasy |
| 30/03/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | Ordabasy | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FK Kyzylzhar |
| 03/10/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Kyzylzhar | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Ordabasy |
Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 43 | 16 | 52 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 42 | 15 | 48 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 39 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 32 | 29 | 36 |
| 5 | FK Aktobe | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 26 | 35 |
| 6 | FC Elimai Semey | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 31 | 26 | 32 |
| 7 | Tobol Kostanay | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 26 | 30 | 28 |
| 8 | FK Ulytau | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 24 | 28 |
| 9 | FK Zhenys | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 21 | 24 | 26 |
| 10 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 24 | 31 | 23 |
| 11 | FK Kyzylzhar | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 24 | 32 | 23 |
| 12 | FK Atyrau | 21 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 15 | 21 | 20 |
| 13 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 22 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 27 | 20 |
| 14 | FC Altai Semey | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 20 | 33 | 19 |
| 15 | Zhetysu | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 24 | 38 | 19 |
| 16 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 17 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ordabasy | FK Kyzylzhar |
|---|---|---|
| FC Altai Semey | 3-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Zhetysu | 4-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Tobol Kostanay | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Kairat Almaty | 1-2 L | 2-4 L |
| FC Elimai Semey | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Ordabasy (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ordabasy
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 08/08 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 02/08 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 19/07 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 11/07 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 05/07 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 28/06 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
FK Kyzylzhar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 08/08 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 01/08 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 25/07 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 11 | W |
| 18/07 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 04/07 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 27/06 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-2 | 2-4 | 3 | 11 | L |
| 17/06 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ordabasy vs FK Kyzylzhar?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ordabasy win (68%). Probabilities: Ordabasy 68%, draw 19%, FK Kyzylzhar 13%.
How many goals are expected in Ordabasy vs FK Kyzylzhar?
The model expects 3 goals (Ordabasy 2.17 · FK Kyzylzhar 0.83), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Ordabasy vs FK Kyzylzhar?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.