Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 12/09, 14:00
Prediction: FK Kaspyi Aktau vs FK Aktobe
Team pages: FK Kaspyi Aktau · FK Aktobe
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.82Total
FK Kaspyi Aktau1.26
FK Aktobe1.56
1X2
FK Kaspyi Aktau
Draw
FK Aktobe
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
FK Kaspyi Aktau
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
FK Aktobe
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FK Kaspyi Aktau
2–2–2
FK Aktobe
(6 last)
- FK Aktobe1-0FK Kaspyi Aktau
- FK Kaspyi Aktau2-2FK Aktobe
- FK Aktobe0-0FK Kaspyi Aktau
- FK Aktobe4-0FK Kaspyi Aktau
- FK Kaspyi Aktau2-0FK Aktobe
- FK Aktobe1-5FK Kaspyi Aktau
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Kaspyi Aktau 1513 · FK Aktobe 1533
| FK Kaspyi Aktau | Draw | FK Aktobe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 27% | 43% |
| Market | 30% | 27% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Kaspyi Aktau | FK Aktobe | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.5 | 1.6 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 3.8 | 2.9 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.4 | 5.1 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Kaspyi Aktau 2–2–2 FK Aktobe
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Aktobe | 1-0 HT 1-0 | FK Kaspyi Aktau |
| 30/07/23 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 2-2 HT 2-1 | FK Aktobe |
| 21/05/23 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Aktobe | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FK Kaspyi Aktau |
| 08/10/22 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Aktobe | 4-0 HT 2-0 | FK Kaspyi Aktau |
| 08/05/22 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 2-0 HT 0-0 | FK Aktobe |
| 30/10/21 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Aktobe | 1-5 HT 0-2 | FK Kaspyi Aktau |
Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kairat Almaty | 24 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 50 | 15 | 57 |
| 2 | Ordabasy | 24 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 47 | 18 | 55 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 41 | 24 | 45 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 37 | 32 | 42 |
| 5 | FK Aktobe | 24 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 34 | 28 | 38 |
| 6 | FC Elimai Semey | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 31 | 32 | 32 |
| 7 | Tobol Kostanay | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 29 | 32 | 31 |
| 8 | FK Ulytau | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 27 | 31 |
| 9 | FK Zhenys | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 22 | 28 | 29 |
| 10 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 25 | 34 | 26 |
| 11 | FK Atyrau | 23 | 4 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 24 | 23 |
| 12 | FK Kyzylzhar | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 24 | 36 | 23 |
| 13 | FC Altai Semey | 24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 22 | 34 | 22 |
| 14 | Zhetysu | 24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 25 | 41 | 22 |
| 15 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 24 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 20 | 32 | 20 |
| 16 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 22 | 32 | 20 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FK Kaspyi Aktau | FK Aktobe |
|---|---|---|
| Irtysh Pavlodar | 2-3 L | 1-2 L |
| FK Zhenys | 3-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Kaisar Kyzylorda | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| FK Atyrau | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Kaspyi Aktau
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 30/08 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 16/08 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 08/08 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 01/08 | Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 1 | 9 | L |
| 26/07 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 10 | W |
| 18/07 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 11/07 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 27/06 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
FK Aktobe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 30/08 | Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 15/08 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 01/08 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 25/07 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 19/07 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 4-2 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 12/07 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 05/07 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 7 | W |
| 27/06 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FK Kaspyi Aktau vs FK Aktobe?
According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Aktobe win (43%). Probabilities: FK Kaspyi Aktau 30%, draw 27%, FK Aktobe 43%.
How many goals are expected in FK Kaspyi Aktau vs FK Aktobe?
The model expects 2.82 goals (FK Kaspyi Aktau 1.26 · FK Aktobe 1.56), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in FK Kaspyi Aktau vs FK Aktobe?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.